MARA Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:MARA) closed at $11.82 on Thursday, surging 17.4% as investors increasingly valued the company's power assets for potential use in artificial intelligence data centers. The move came despite Bitcoin, the company's core mining focus, rising only 1.5% to roughly $64,780.
Market Context and Peer Performance
Shares of AI-related mining peers saw even larger gains, climbing between 20% and 31%. MARA's return of 17.4% was nearly four percentage points below the group median, signaling that investors showed a clear preference for firms with more immediate contracted AI revenue. IREN Limited (NASDAQ:IREN) rallied 30.7%, Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT) rose 21.2%, CleanSpark (NASDAQ:CLSK) advanced 21.1%, and Core Scientific (NASDAQ:CORZ) climbed 20.4%.
The broader market also provided a tailwind, with the Nasdaq Composite rising 2.78% after Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) jumped over 15% on an upbeat cloud outlook that eased concerns about returns on AI investments. Additionally, Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) reached a deal for Core Scientific capacity, starting with over 500 megawatts in 2027 and the potential to expand to 2.5 gigawatts.
Bitcoin's Limited Role in Thursday's Move
The difference between MARA's equity value increase and Bitcoin's contribution was significant. MARA's market capitalization rose by approximately $666 million on Thursday, while the increase in Bitcoin contributed only about $32.9 million to the company's latest reported coin holdings of 35,303 BTC. Based solely on that unchanged balance, Bitcoin accounted for just 4.9% of Thursday's increase, underscoring that investors were primarily valuing power availability and potential for AI conversion rather than core mining fundamentals.
Strategic Shift and Infrastructure Investments
MARA's strategic pivot toward AI infrastructure is evident in its Texas development, which spans over 1,200 acres. The company anticipates reaching one gigawatt of access by October 2027 and two gigawatts by April 2028, with the overall portfolio potentially reaching 4.8 gigawatts once sites like Long Ridge are fully energized. Chairman and CEO Fred Thiel noted that facilities offering “reliable, scalable power will become increasingly valuable.” The Long Ridge deal, valued at $1.5 billion including assumed debt, will deliver a 505-megawatt gas facility and over 1,600 acres, producing approximately $144 million in annualized adjusted earnings, pending regulatory clearance.
Operational Challenges
Despite the AI-driven optimism, MARA faces operational headwinds. In the first quarter of 2026, revenue fell 18.4% year-over-year to $174.6 million, while energized hashrate increased 33% to 72.2 EH/s. Bitcoin production declined slightly to 2,247 coins, and purchased energy cost per Bitcoin rose 12.1% to $40,047. This highlights that additional computing power did not yield higher Bitcoin output, reinforcing the need for alternative revenue streams.
Upcoming Earnings and Risks
MARA is scheduled to disclose its second-quarter earnings on August 6, with early estimates indicating revenue of approximately $209 million and earnings of $0.17 per share. The projected revenue implies around 20% growth from the prior quarter but remains roughly 12% lower than the second quarter of 2025. Investors are closely watching tenant commitments, energization timelines, project funding, and Bitcoin sales.
Risks remain, including Bitcoin price volatility, competitive pressure on the network, and fluctuations in electricity costs. The 4.8-gigawatt figure refers to potential capacity, not current AI usage, and any setbacks, increased financing costs, or new share issuance could jeopardize the rerating. Thursday's price action reflected increased AI infrastructure optionality, but the August 6 earnings call will be key to determining whether that optionality translates into tangible revenue.
