U.S. mortgage rates remained elevated near the 6% threshold on Thursday, February 12, 2026, as the housing market continues to navigate a period of uncertainty ahead of the critical spring buying season. According to data from Bankrate, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage settled at 6.16%, a marginal decline of 7 basis points from the previous week. This level, while offering a slight reprieve, continues to act as a significant barrier for many prospective homebuyers, keeping overall demand subdued.
Housing Data Reflects Persistent Headwinds
The broader market sentiment was weighed down by fresh data showing a pronounced slowdown in existing-home sales. The National Association of Realtors reported that sales plummeted 8.4% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million units, marking the weakest pace since December 2023. This decline underscores the dual challenges of strained affordability and persistently low inventory. The median sales price for existing homes climbed to $396,800, while the total inventory held steady at 1.22 million units. First-time buyers represented just 31% of transactions, highlighting the difficulty of entry-level market participation.
Market Awaits Federal Reserve Guidance
Financial markets remain fixated on the Federal Reserve's policy path, with the next interest rate decision scheduled for March 18. Analysts note that recent economic data, particularly strong labor market figures, have kept the central bank in a cautious stance, despite inflation showing signs of moderation. "We are still in that holding pattern," remarked Dr. Anthony Kellum, president and CEO of Kellum Mortgage. This uncertainty has contributed to volatility in Treasury yields, which directly influence mortgage costs, leaving both lenders and borrowers in a wait-and-see mode.
Mortgage application activity reflected this stagnation. The Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey indicated that applications were essentially flat, dipping a mere 0.3% for the week ending February 6. The average contract rate for a conforming 30-year loan held at 6.21%. MBA's Joel Kan observed that while some potential borrowers are holding out for more favorable rates, others are exploring alternative loan products, with government-backed FHA loans and adjustable-rate mortgages gaining a larger share of application volume.
Rocket Companies Shares Under Pressure
The cautious environment translated into notable stock market movement for key mortgage sector players. Shares of Rocket Companies (RKT), a major mortgage originator, fell 5.4% to $17.58 in midday trading. This decline followed an even steeper 8.2% drop on Wednesday, illustrating heightened investor sensitivity to housing market jitters. The stock's performance stands in contrast to some mortgage insurers, such as MGIC Investment (MGIC) and Radian Group (RDN), which managed gains earlier in the week, suggesting a nuanced view of risk within the broader lending ecosystem.
The current rate environment presents a dual dynamic. For existing homeowners, rates near 6% present a potential opportunity for refinancing, providing some financial relief. However, for new buyers, especially in high-cost markets, affordability remains a significant stretch. The combination of elevated prices and tight inventory continues to suppress transaction volumes, delaying any hoped-for rebound in housing activity.
Looking ahead, the market's trajectory is highly data-dependent. Unexpectedly strong readings on inflation or employment could push Treasury yields and, consequently, mortgage rates higher, further squeezing out buyers who are reliant on financing. Such a scenario would place additional pressure on mortgage lenders and could postpone a recovery in home sales. Traders and analysts alike are closely monitoring incoming economic indicators for clues on the Fed's next move, with the March policy meeting serving as the next major focal point for the interest rate outlook.
