Natural gas futures in the United States ended the trading week just below the $2.80 per million British thermal units level, finding support from a smaller-than-anticipated injection into storage facilities. The price action remained range-bound as the market navigates the spring shoulder season, a transitional period when heating demand fades and cooling demand has yet to fully materialize.
Storage Data Surprises to the Upside
The Energy Information Administration reported a 63 billion cubic feet build in underground gas storage for the week ending May 1, bringing total inventories to 2,205 bcf. This figure fell short of the 74 bcf injection that analysts had forecast and also lagged the five-year average gain of 77 bcf, according to StoneX. While not indicative of scarcity, the smaller build does chip away at the persistent surplus that has weighed on prices. Inventories currently stand 75 bcf above year-ago levels and 139 bcf above the five-year average.
Seasonal Dynamics and Demand Outlook
The timing of this report places the market squarely in the spring shoulder season—the lull between heavy winter heating and the onset of summer air-conditioning demand. During this period, traders closely monitor storage levels, export activity, and weather forecasts, as day-to-day demand can shift abruptly. Gelber & Associates noted that a rapidly fading heating season is bumping up against the first notable summer cooling demand, with pipeline exports to Mexico approaching 7.5 bcf/d lending a floor to prices. NatGasWeather.com reported that extended forecasts now tilt hotter-than-normal for much of the interior United States heading into late May and early June, a factor that could boost power burn.
Supply and Production Trends
Supply remains steady. Baker Hughes data showed that U.S. drillers added oil and gas rigs for the third consecutive week, bringing the total count to 548. However, the number of gas-directed rigs ticked down by one to 129. The EIA projects that U.S. gas production will edge up to 109.6 bcf/d in 2026, compared with a record 107.7 bcf/d seen in 2025, as reported by Reuters.
Price Projections and Export Growth
For now, the EIA’s outlook is measured. The agency projects Henry Hub—the main U.S. benchmark out of Louisiana—to average $3.10 per MMBtu for both the second and third quarters. By 2026, it expects a yearly average of $3.67. On the export front, U.S. liquefied natural gas shipments are set to reach 17.0 bcf/d in 2026, surpassing the prior year’s record of 15.1 bcf/d.
Global Market Tailwinds
U.S. gas finds an extra lift from global markets. Asia’s spot LNG prices slipped to $16.90 per MMBtu for June, down from $17.80, according to Reuters, but that still represents a hefty premium over Henry Hub. ICIS analyst Evan Tan pointed out that current spot prices have started to ease off as traders watch for a potential U.S.-Iran agreement and sluggish buying in North Asia. Yet Hans Van Cleef at EqoLibrium said the firmer Asian market means all uncontracted cargoes are heading to Asia.
Risks to the Upside
Bulls could see their case unravel quickly. A cool-down after late May, ongoing LNG maintenance that is still limiting export demand, or bigger builds in upcoming storage reports could send the market slipping back into a softer spring mood. With inventories running above average, sellers are not shy about hitting into any rally.
Outlook
Looking ahead, range-bound action seems most likely, though there is a slight tilt higher if weekend weather models keep the heat. Edging up to $3 will require a clear boost in power burn or LNG feedgas running hotter. Otherwise, Thursday’s storage surprise offers a floor, not fresh direction.
