Nebius Group shares climbed in premarket trading on Thursday, extending gains as the company gears up for its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index next week. The stock traded at $292.79 as of 08:07 a.m. ET, up 4.23% from Wednesday's close of $280.91, which itself marked a 5.96% gain. The move reflects investor enthusiasm for the AI cloud infrastructure provider ahead of a key index reshuffle.
Index Inclusion and Market Context
Nasdaq announced that Nebius will join the Nasdaq-100 at the opening bell on Monday, June 22, alongside CoreWeave, Astera Labs, Rocket Lab, and Teradyne. The Nasdaq-100 tracks 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange, and over 200 products tracking the index collectively manage more than $800 billion in assets. Inclusion typically triggers buying from index funds and ETFs that must replicate the benchmark.
With the U.S. stock market closed on Friday, June 19, for Juneteenth, Thursday represents the final full trading session before the index change takes effect. This has amplified focus on Nebius, as traders assess whether the recent price momentum is driven by index-related flows or genuine confidence in the company's AI cloud strategy. Nasdaq 100 futures were up 1.49% early Thursday, and broader U.S. stock futures were also higher ahead of the session, which features "triple witching" — the quarterly expiration of stock and index derivatives that typically boosts volume and volatility.
Business Developments and Growth Trajectory
Nebius has been in the spotlight following a series of strategic announcements. On June 16, the company disclosed the completion of its acquisition of Eigen AI, a firm specializing in inference and model optimization — the process of running AI models after they have been trained. The deal, initially revealed on May 1, closed on June 10 after receiving regulatory approval and satisfying other conditions. Eigen adds a software and efficiency layer to Nebius's infrastructure, addressing customer demand to maximize the utility of scarce high-end chips.
The company reported first-quarter revenue of $399 million, nearly eight times higher than the same period last year. Its capital expenditure plans for 2026 are set between $20 billion and $25 billion, reflecting aggressive investment in data centers and hardware. CEO Arkady Volozh noted that "we typically see several customers competing for every GPU we bring online," underscoring the intense demand for AI computing capacity.
Nebius has also secured major long-term contracts. In March, it signed a $12 billion deal to provide Meta Platforms with AI computing capacity by 2027, with a potential additional $15 billion over five years if the capacity is not sold to other customers. This followed a supply agreement with Microsoft and a $2 billion investment from Nvidia, whose CEO Jensen Huang described Nebius as an AI cloud "designed for the agentic era."
Analyst Perspectives and Risk Factors
While the growth story is compelling, analysts caution that risks remain significant. BofA Securities analyst Tal Liani characterized AI infrastructure as a "huge opportunity" for Nebius, but a consensus of 16 analysts on MarketScreener sets an average price target of $244.07 — below Wednesday's closing price of $280.91. This suggests that much of the optimism is already priced into the stock.
Key concerns include heavy capital spending that could pressure margins, customer concentration, and reliance on third-party funding. Nebius Chief Commercial Officer Tom Blackwell acknowledged that while structured deals can serve as an "efficient source of capital," execution, power supply, and customer demand must all align for success. The company's reliance on a few large customers, including Meta and Microsoft, adds to the risk profile.
As Nebius and CoreWeave — another neocloud operator joining the Nasdaq-100 — both aim to challenge established cloud giants, the coming days will test whether index buying and AI demand can outweigh these headwinds. Monday's debut will provide early signals on the sustainability of Nebius's recent rally.
