Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) has taken an early lead in the race for the weight-loss pill market, with its Wegovy oral medication generating 18,410 U.S. prescriptions in its second week of launch, according to IQVIA data cited by analysts. In contrast, Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) managed only 3,707 prescriptions for its competing pill, Foundayo, during the same period.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Trung Huynh cautioned that it is still early days and comparisons can be tricky, but noted that Foundayo's latest numbers are likely to be viewed as a disappointment by the market. The data has fueled investor interest in the potential for oral GLP-1 drugs to expand the obesity treatment market beyond injections, potentially attracting more out-of-pocket customers and reshaping the competitive dynamics between the two pharmaceutical giants.
Novo Nordisk's U.S.-listed shares rose $2.24 to $40.76, while Eli Lilly's shares fell $35.26 to $882.39, reflecting the market's reaction to the early prescription data. GLP-1 drugs work by mimicking a hormone that regulates appetite and blood sugar, and the pill form offers a needle-free alternative. However, injections are still expected to account for a significant share of the market.
Eli Lilly has a potential advantage with Foundayo: patients can take it with or without food, unlike Novo's Wegovy pill, which requires a morning dose on an empty stomach and no other medications. BMO analyst Evan Seigerman noted that investors are closely watching whether Foundayo's "lack of a food effect" will influence patient adoption. However, J.P. Morgan's Chris Schott pointed out that Foundayo's launch pace trails oral Wegovy, which is not unexpected given Novo's head start and more established branding.
Novo Nordisk also announced positive results from its PIONEER TEENS phase 3a trial, which evaluated oral semaglutide in 132 patients aged 10 to 17 with type 2 diabetes. The study showed that oral semaglutide reduced HbA1c by 0.83 percentage points more than placebo, with a safety profile consistent with previous semaglutide trials. The company plans to seek U.S. and EU regulatory approval in the second half of 2026 to expand the use of Rybelsus and the Ozempic pill to pediatric and adolescent patients. No oral GLP-1 drug has yet been approved for children or teens.
Martin Holst Lange, Novo's chief scientific officer, said the data support oral semaglutide as an effective treatment option for young people whose blood sugar levels are not controlled by standard therapies. Treatment options for younger patients are currently limited, with doctors typically prescribing metformin or insulin. However, metformin alone is ineffective for about 50% of adolescents, and insulin carries risks of hypoglycemia and weight gain.
In Europe, regulators are also moving forward. European Medicines Agency chief Emer Cooke said Wednesday that the EU is set to complete its review of the first of a new wave of weight-loss pills this summer, following the recent U.S. launches by Novo and Lilly.
Access remains a key challenge. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services confirmed that a bridge program for obesity drugs will run from July 1, 2026, through December 31, 2027. However, after pushback from insurers, the agency postponed the Medicare Part D portion of the BALANCE model. Analysts say this is positive for near-term demand but leaves longer-term prospects uncertain.
Novo Nordisk faces a multi-pronged battle: protecting Wegovy in obesity, expanding semaglutide's diabetes footprint, and fending off Lilly's bid to win customers with easier dosing. While early prescription numbers lean in Novo's favor, bigger hurdles remain—including getting patients to stick with treatment, securing insurance coverage, and passing regulatory checks.
