Nu Holdings Ltd. is set to release its first-quarter earnings after the New York market closes on Thursday, with a conference call scheduled for 6 p.m. ET. The report arrives at a pivotal moment for the Latin American fintech giant, as investors shift their focus from customer acquisition metrics to more traditional banking benchmarks such as credit quality, revenue per user, and capital deployment.
According to consensus estimates compiled by financial data providers, analysts expect Nu Holdings to post earnings of $0.20 per share on revenue of approximately $5.06 billion. Some sources have offered a slightly lower revenue projection of $4.97 billion, but the consensus points to a substantial year-over-year jump in profitability. NU shares edged up 0.9% to $12.94 in midday trading on Thursday, reflecting cautious optimism ahead of the numbers.
The company ended 2025 with 131 million customers, a 15% increase from the prior year. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Nubank generated $4.9 billion in revenue and reported average revenue per active customer of $15. These figures underscore the challenge ahead: converting a rapidly expanding user base into sustainable profit growth. CEO David Vélez earlier this year highlighted the company's focus on scale, engagement, and profitability, setting a goal of "winning in Latin America" and building a broader digital banking platform.
Credit metrics will be under particular scrutiny. Nubank's non-performing loan ratio for 15-90 day delinquencies edged down to 4.1% in Q4, while loans more than 90 days overdue eased to 6.6%. As the bank pushes to expand lending in Brazil and Mexico, maintaining disciplined underwriting will be critical to avoid a spike in losses. Analysts from JPMorgan have noted that the previous quarter's profit beat benefited from a lower-than-expected tax rate, while Citi pointed to elevated cost of risk and operating expenses as potential headwinds.
The macroeconomic backdrop adds another layer of complexity. Brazil's central bank is widely expected to cut the Selic rate at its June meeting, with Polymarket traders assigning a 76% probability to a reduction. Lower rates could ease funding costs and credit constraints for Nubank, though they also compress net interest margins for lenders. The company has already outlined plans to invest roughly 45 billion reais ($8.2 billion) in Brazil this year, targeting artificial intelligence, credit model upgrades, new products, and hiring.
Competitive dynamics remain intense. S&P Global Market Intelligence ranks Itaú Unibanco as the largest bank in Latin America by assets, but Nubank has climbed to the 15th spot with $74.89 billion in assets as of December 31. With more than 112 million customers in Brazil alone, Nubank now reaches approximately 61% of the country's adult population, making further domestic growth more challenging. The company is pursuing expansion abroad, including conditional approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish Nubank, N.A., though it still needs sign-offs from the FDIC and Federal Reserve.
For investors, Thursday's report is a litmus test. The headline earnings number will matter, but the market will be watching closely for trends in customer growth, revenue per active user, and credit quality. A miss on any of these fronts could overshadow an otherwise solid quarter, highlighting the delicate balance Nubank must strike as it matures from a high-growth fintech into a full-fledged financial institution.
