Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is set to release its first-quarter earnings after the U.S. market closes on Monday, with options markets signaling a potential 9% swing in the stock by the end of the week. The company will host a webcast at 5:00 p.m. ET to discuss the results.
The report carries significance beyond Palantir itself. With tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon already highlighting the ongoing boost from artificial intelligence to their cloud revenues, investors are now turning their attention to whether software companies such as Palantir and ServiceNow can translate that AI momentum into stronger pricing power and faster growth.
Software stocks caught a late-week bounce, with Palantir rising 3.6% to close Friday at $144.06. The move followed upbeat earnings and guidance from Atlassian and Twilio, which lifted the broader SaaS sector, according to StockStory. SaaS, or software-as-a-service, refers to subscription-based software accessed online.
Wall Street expects first-quarter revenue of approximately $1.54 billion, representing a 74% year-over-year increase. Adjusted earnings are forecast at $0.28 per share. Both U.S. government contracts and commercial sales are anticipated to show strong growth.
Palantir's software helps governments and businesses manage and analyze large datasets. The company's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) has become the primary focus for investors. Reuters describes AIP as a system for activating AI within an organization.
Bulls remain optimistic. Dan Ives at Wedbush reiterated his Outperform rating and $230 price target ahead of the results, citing expectations for another robust quarter. According to Ives, his team's field checks indicate unprecedented demand for AIP among both commercial and government clients, as reported by Benzinga.
Baird's William Power also maintains a bullish stance with an Outperform rating and $200 price target. The firm anticipates an 11th consecutive quarter of revenue acceleration and projects 2027 free cash flow at $5.76 billion, with a potential upside scenario reaching $7.5 billion.
Government contracts remain a significant part of the story. In April, the U.S. Department of Agriculture signed a $300 million blanket purchase agreement with Palantir to support the National Farm Security Action Plan and modernize farmer services. USDA Chief Information Officer Sam Berry stated that the partnership enhances the agency's visibility and speed in safeguarding the food supply, per Reuters.
Oppenheimer also weighed in bullishly, initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and $200 price target. Analyst Param Singh highlighted the stickiness of Palantir's software, noting that once clients integrate it into their workflows, barriers to migration become insurmountable, as reported by TradingView.
However, there are downside risks. HSBC's Stephen Bersey downgraded Palantir to Hold from Buy, slashing his price target to $151 from $205. He pointed to a rising threat from competitors like OpenAI, suggesting that new AI tools could erode Palantir's traditional competitive advantage. This risk is familiar to investors—in May 2025, Palantir shares plunged more than 13% after earnings, even with an upgraded outlook that failed to meet the Street's expectations.
Ultimately, Monday's report is not about debating Palantir's AI credentials. It is about whether the company can convert AI buzz into tangible sales, new deals, and sufficient pricing power to justify its lofty software valuation. The market will find out after the close.
