Plug Power Inc. (NASDAQ:PLUG) saw its shares decline 5.5% to $2.25 in late morning trading on Friday, July 10, 2026, after Susquehanna Financial Group lowered its 12-month price target to $2.50 from $3.75. The $1.25 reduction, applied to approximately 1.40 billion outstanding shares, effectively cut about $1.75 billion from the broker's implied equity valuation for the hydrogen fuel cell company. While these are target adjustments rather than actual market losses, the move intensified selling pressure on a stock already headed for its fourth consecutive daily decline.
Broker Outlook Diverges
Susquehanna maintained its Neutral rating on Plug Power but slashed its target by 33.3%, reflecting growing caution around the company's valuation, cash flow, and margin trajectory. In contrast, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analyst David Arcaro raised his price target to $1.65 from $1.50 on Thursday, though he kept an Underweight rating, suggesting the stock should underperform. The combined midpoint of the two broker targets now sits at $2.08, roughly 8% below the current share price. The net shift in implied equity value from these two calls alone amounts to a reduction of about $770 million.
Orica Order Fails to Inspire
Earlier this week, Orica Ltd. (ASX:ORI) announced a 50-megawatt electrolyzer order for its Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub in Australia, using Plug Power's proton-exchange-membrane (PEM) technology. Plug CEO José Luis Crespo hailed the deal as evidence of customer confidence, while Orica executive Germán Morales emphasized the project's role in securing reliable, lower-carbon inputs. However, the order represents less than 16% of Plug's deployed electrolyzer base of over 320 MW. Construction is slated to begin in 2026, with first hydrogen production expected in early 2029. Orica's net project spend is between A$245 million and A$283 million through 2029, but Plug's specific revenue share and booking timeline remain undisclosed, leaving analysts skeptical about near-term financial impact.
Earnings and Cash Burn Concerns
Plug Power's first-quarter results highlight the challenges. Revenue rose 22% year-over-year to $163.5 million, and gross margin improved to negative 13% from negative 55% a year ago. Yet the company burned $150 million in cash from operations, ending the quarter with $223 million in unrestricted cash—meaning its quarterly cash spend equaled 67% of that balance. Management maintains its target for positive EBITDAS (excluding interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and share-based compensation) in the fourth quarter, but investors remain focused on the pace of cash consumption and margin expansion.
Sector-Wide Pressure
The broader hydrogen and fuel cell sector also faced headwinds on Friday. Ballard Power Systems (NASDAQ:BLDP) fell 4.2% to $3.10, FuelCell Energy (NASDAQ:FCEL) dropped 10.5% to $20.59, and Bloom Energy (NYSE:BE) slipped 8.3% to $235.73. The Nasdaq Composite was off 0.25%, suggesting the selloff was partly sector-specific, but Plug's broker downgrade added extra weight.
What's Next
Investors are now awaiting second-quarter results, looking for tangible progress on booked revenue, gross profit, and cash conservation rather than headline-grabbing project announcements. The Orica order's economic terms and timing remain key unknowns. If Plug can accelerate electrolyzer order conversion, improve margins, and reduce cash burn, the current $2.25 price may prove conservative. Conversely, project delays or persistent high cash usage could push shares toward Morgan Stanley's $1.65 target.
