Shares of Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS) climbed 7.5% in Monday trading, reaching A$3.85 by 11:23 AEST, after the gold miner unveiled a more ambitious production outlook for fiscal 2030. The revised plan calls for output between 560,000 and 610,000 ounces, an 11% increase at the midpoint compared with the previous guidance issued in October 2025.
The Perth-based company also outlined substantial growth spending for fiscal 2027, forecasting capital expenditures of A$480 million to A$570 million. This includes a 26% budget increase for the Mt Magnet processing plant, now estimated at A$280 million, up from A$223 million. The additional funds will cover inflation, fixed-price contracts, and expanded site infrastructure.
Ramelius's shares outperformed its Australian gold peers during the same period, with Westgold (ASX:WGX) up 1.08%, Genesis Minerals (ASX:GMD) up 0.53%, Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) up 0.36%, and Northern Star (ASX:NST) down 0.18%. The relative strength suggests the move was company-specific rather than sector-wide.
The company's four-year outlook, released on September 21, 2026, also includes all-in sustaining cost (AISC) guidance of A$2,100 to A$2,400 per ounce for fiscal 2030. This maintains a wide margin against the company's planning price of A$5,500 per ounce, though it excludes growth capital. Ramelius has met its production and cost guidance for six consecutive years, a track record managing director Mark Zeptner highlighted, expressing confidence in maintaining a sector-leading AISC position.
Key Plan Changes
- FY30 production: 560,000–610,000 ounces (up from 500,000–550,000)
- Mt Magnet plant: A$280 million (up from A$223 million)
- Eridanus cutback: A$458 million (up from A$374 million)
- FY27 production: 205,000–225,000 ounces (guidance upgraded from outlook)
The production uplift is attributed to higher-grade feed and a larger processing base. Mt Magnet's capacity is scheduled to reach 4.3 million tonnes per annum by the March 2028 quarter. However, the expansion comes with significant capital requirements, and the company's heavy investment phase carries execution risks.
Analyst Views Diverge
Broker recommendations on Ramelius remain mixed. Morgans has a Buy rating with a target of A$4.74, UBS also rates it Buy with a target of A$5.40, while RBC Capital and Macquarie both have Hold ratings with targets of A$3.70 and A$4.00, respectively. Ord Minnett joins the bulls with a Buy and A$4.45 target. The wide range reflects differing views on execution and gold price assumptions.
Ramelius estimates it could generate up to A$1.5 billion in free cash flow by fiscal 2030, but that projection hinges on gold prices holding at A$5,500 per ounce. Risks include a slower-than-expected ramp-up at Mt Magnet, higher diesel costs, or a weaker gold price, all of which could compress the planned margin during the capital-intensive period.
The next major milestone is the December 2026 quarter, when the company expects permitting for the Roe deposit. Construction of the Rebecca-Roe project is slated to begin in December 2027, positioning Ramelius for long-term growth in gold production.
