NEW YORK, July 30, 2026 – Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) closed at $1,015.89 on Wednesday, down 7.3%, and edged 0.4% lower in premarket trading. The sharp decline wiped out approximately $198 billion in market capitalization from the company's June peak, according to preliminary calculations based on the latest share count and Wednesday's closing price.
The stock had reached an all-time high of $2,354.39 on June 22, implying an equity value near $349 billion. Wednesday's close leaves the company worth roughly $150 billion. The selling accelerated over four consecutive sessions, driving a cumulative decline of 36.9%, including three straight double-digit drops.
Volume surged to 24.5 million shares on Wednesday, about 79% above the 65-day average, indicating broad-based selling pressure. Sandisk's July performance significantly underperformed its U.S. storage peers: Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) fell 36.0% in July, while Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC) dropped 27.7%.
The core investor concern is not an earnings downgrade but rather the rising bar for expectations. The fourth-quarter EPS consensus has climbed 48% over the past three months to $34.67, which now sits 5.1% above management's guidance range of $30 to $33. This makes the upcoming August 5 earnings report a critical test of whether the company can deliver another substantial beat.
Analyst profit forecasts have moved sharply higher. The Q4 EPS consensus stood at $23.38 three months ago, while the Q1 2027 EPS consensus has risen from $28.81 to $43.94 over the same period, a 52.5% increase. Sandisk's latest results supported these bullish forecasts, with revenue reaching $5.95 billion and adjusted EPS of $23.41. Management guided Q4 revenue to $7.75 billion-$8.25 billion, implying about 35% sequential EPS growth at the midpoint, but the current consensus implies roughly 48% growth—a 13-point gap that leaves little margin for error.
Fresh sector evidence remains strong. Samsung Electronics (OTC:SSNLF) executives noted that memory shortages could extend into 2028, with “almost all customers requesting multi-year supply contracts,” according to Reuters. However, Samsung shares fell 0.7% after initially gaining 8.4%, and SK Hynix dropped 5.6% despite bumper results. “The chip narrative has weakened,” said Mirae Asset analyst Kim Seok-hwan.
China has added another pressure point. Investor reaction to a major Chinese memory IPO and domestic chip-tool advances has raised fears of future supply growth and weaker pricing power. Risks include a potential sharp rebound if NAND flash pricing remains durable or if Sandisk delivers another earnings beat, but weaker margins, softer guidance, or faster Chinese capacity growth could extend the reset.
Sandisk reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on August 5 at 4:30 p.m. EDT, followed by its investor day on August 13. These events will determine whether estimates fall toward guidance or the share price recovers toward consensus.
