Sandisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) was quoted near $1,761.47 in pre-market trading at 07:10 EDT on Tuesday, down 0.29%, as investors digested a fresh bullish call from Rosenblatt. The research firm initiated coverage on the memory chip maker with a Buy rating and a $2,400 price target, implying 35.9% upside from Monday's close of $1,766.64. The endorsement arrives after a volatile stretch for the stock, which fell 1.41% on Monday on volume of 10.38 million shares, slightly below its one-month daily average.
Rosenblatt's Bull Case Rests on NAND Pricing Durability
Rosenblatt's thesis emphasizes the growing importance of NAND flash memory in AI inference systems, rather than simply riding the broader AI demand wave. The firm points to Sandisk's recent contract agreements, which management says cover roughly half of fiscal 2027 bit shipments and two-thirds for fiscal 2028. CEO David Goeckeler said in August that the portfolio was positioned to "generate growing and durable free cash flow," and the company raised its remaining share buyback authorization to $15.5 billion.
Pricing, Not Just Volume, Is Driving Results
Sandisk's recent operating performance has been exceptional. In the fiscal fourth quarter, revenue reached $8.97 billion, up 51% sequentially, with higher prices contributing about two-thirds of that growth. GAAP gross margin climbed to 84.6%, and first-quarter guidance keeps both revenue and margins near those peaks, with revenue projected at $10.30–$10.80 billion and adjusted EPS of $44–$46.
The stock has been on a wild ride. Shares jumped 6.21% on September 17 to close at $1,614.39, then surged another 10.99% on September 18 to $1,791.82 on heavy volume of 17.79 million shares — more than double the prior session. Monday's pullback trimmed some of those gains.
Valuation Looks Reasonable on Forward Earnings
At Monday's close, Sandisk traded at roughly 8.3 times the fiscal 2027 consensus EPS estimate of $214.10, according to S&P Global forecasts. That multiple drops to 6.7 times the fiscal 2028 estimate of $264.72. Both figures are well below many semiconductor peers, even after the recent rally.
Analyst Targets Show Wide Dispersion
Rosenblatt joins a chorus of bullish calls, but targets vary widely. Susquehanna reiterated a Buy with a $2,745 target (55.4% upside), Citi maintained Buy at $2,100 (18.9% upside), and Bernstein kept Buy with a $3,000 target (69.8% upside). On the lower end, Mizuho reiterated Buy but cut its target to $1,875, offering just 6.1% upside. S&P Global's full set includes one Sell and three Holds, reflecting lingering skepticism.
Key Risks: NAND Pricing Could Reverse
The biggest risk is that NAND pricing could retreat before AI storage volumes mature, pulling Sandisk's 84.6% gross margin back toward historical levels and undermining every target based on peak earnings. Investors will get their next check when the company reports fiscal first-quarter results, with revenue guidance of $10.30–$10.80 billion and adjusted EPS of $44–$46. The report date has not yet been announced. Whether pricing continues to supply most of the growth remains the unresolved question.
