On Thursday, February 13, 2026, agricultural commodity markets exhibited notable strength, led by soybeans and wheat, while equity markets faced significant pressure, particularly in the technology sector. The trading session was characterized by a divergence between robust physical commodity demand and growing investor anxiety over artificial intelligence's disruptive potential and monetary policy.
Agricultural Complex Rallies on Export Data and Supply Concerns
Soybean futures advanced between 11 and 13.25 cents, with the November contract gaining 5.75 cents. The rally was supported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's confirmation of significant export sales, including 108,000 metric tons to Egypt and a purchase of 286,100 metric tons by China. Although weekly export sales reached a marketing-year low, the total remains 141% above the level from the same period last year. In related markets, soybean meal futures moved higher, while soybean oil prices declined. South American crop estimates provided a mixed backdrop, with Brazil's forecast revised upward while Argentina's held steady, albeit with lower crop condition ratings.
Corn futures followed the positive trend, rising 3 to 5.5 cents. The national average cash price increased by 3.75 cents to $3.98 3/4. Export sales data was exceptionally strong, with 2.07 million metric tons sold for the week ending February 5, nearly double the prior week's volume and 25.5% above last year's pace. Key purchasers included Japan, South Korea, and Colombia. Supply fundamentals tightened as Brazil's corn crop estimate was reduced by 0.42 MMT to 138.45 MMT, and Argentina's crop rating deteriorated to 43% good or excellent. The March 2026 contract settled at $4.31 1/4, a gain of 3.75 cents.
Wheat markets posted double-digit gains across major U.S. exchanges. Chicago SRW wheat rose 13 to 15.25 cents, while Kansas City HRW wheat climbed 14 to 15.5 cents, driven partly by short covering amid concerns over cold temperatures in Russia. Minneapolis spring wheat added 7 to 8 cents. U.S. export sales reached 487,998 metric tons, a 30.52% weekly increase but still 14.32% below last year's level, with the Philippines, Mexico, and Indonesia as leading buyers. The European Union's wheat crop estimate for 2026/27 was trimmed slightly to 128.3 million metric tons.
Equity Markets Tumble on AI Fears and Rate Uncertainty
In stark contrast to the commodity strength, global equity markets sold off sharply, led by technology shares. In India, the Sensex plummeted over 700 points, with the Nifty index falling below 25,600. The selloff was concentrated in the information technology sector, where the Nifty IT index dropped 4.59% to a near 10-month low. Major constituents Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) declined approximately 6.13% and 4.77%, respectively. Mid-tier firms including Coforge, Persistent Systems, and LTIMindtree retreated more than 3%. The weakness extended to U.S.-listed securities, with Infosys American Depository Receipts plunging 10%.
Analysts attributed the downturn to mounting concerns that advancements in artificial intelligence, highlighted by a recent offering from Anthropic, could disrupt traditional IT services business models, potentially reducing related revenues by up to 40%. Concurrently, diminished expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve removed a key support for growth-oriented tech valuations. Market strategists suggested the correction may represent an unwinding of the previously overextended AI trade and advised investors to monitor for stabilization in U.S. technology shares to gauge the near-term path for Indian IT stocks.
In U.S. retail, a notable valuation disconnect emerged for Best Buy (BBY). The company's shares have declined 23.3% over the past year and 31.2% over five years. However, a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation model suggests an intrinsic value of $153.86 per share, implying the stock trades at a 57.8% discount to its fundamental worth. The model projects free cash flow growing to $1.99 billion by 2030. Despite competitive pressures and shifting consumer electronics trends, this analysis highlights a potential undervaluation, inviting scrutiny of the company's current earnings and growth prospects relative to its price-to-earnings ratio.
Other Market Movements
Live cattle futures ended mixed in a quiet session. The nearby February contract gained 15 cents, while other contracts fell 30 to 50 cents. Cash market activity was subdued, with no sales recorded in the Fed Cattle Exchange online auction. Feeder cattle futures declined 50 cents to $1.72. USDA data showed beef exports at a three-week low of 15,660 metric tons. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed, with Choice falling $1.08 to $364.84 and Select rising 45 cents to $363.03.
Cotton futures gained 24 to 30 points, with October 2025 cotton closing at 67.25 cents per pound. This resilience came despite a reported 93% weekly drop in upland cotton sales for July 4-10, with Vietnam as the primary buyer. Supportive factors included a $1.21 per barrel rise in crude oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar, with the dollar index increasing 0.295 to 98.370. ICE certified cotton stocks fell by 10,753 bales to 23,481 bales.
The day's activity underscores a market grappling with firm physical commodity fundamentals against a backdrop of financial market uncertainty driven by technological disruption and central bank policy. Investors are navigating a complex landscape where traditional sector correlations appear to be breaking down.
