As premarket trading gets underway on Wall Street, SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) finds itself at a critical juncture. The company is set to release its second-quarter financial results after the closing bell on Tuesday, but the numbers that matter most may not be the headline revenue figures. Instead, investors are focused on whether Starlink's operational earnings can meaningfully contribute to the company's massive artificial intelligence (AI) and space exploration expenditures.
According to preliminary consensus estimates from LSEG and Visible Alpha, SpaceX is projected to report total revenue of $6.93 billion for Q2, a sequential increase of 47.8% from the $4.69 billion recorded in Q1. However, the company is also expected to post an operating loss of $1.55 billion, an improvement from the $1.94 billion loss in the previous quarter. Starlink, the satellite internet division, is forecast to deliver an operating profit of $1.42 billion, up 19.3% from $1.19 billion in Q1.
Yet, these figures reveal a significant funding gap. Starlink's projected operating profit represents only 13.9% of the anticipated $10.2 billion in AI-related capital expenditures. When considering total capital expenditures of $14.05 billion, Starlink's contribution drops to just 10.1%. AI revenue, meanwhile, is expected to surge 184.8% to $2.33 billion, but that still only covers 22.8% of AI capex. Total revenue is expected to cover less than half (49.3%) of total capex, with AI spending alone accounting for 72.6% of the total.
The funding shortfall is a central concern for analysts. Will Rhind, CEO of GraniteShares, noted that Starlink “cannot single-handedly fund a $30 billion annualized AI capex program.” Portfolio manager Michael Monaghan highlighted that the key question is how quickly third-party compute revenue can offset these expenses. The market will be scrutinizing Tuesday's report for any signs that the gap is narrowing.
Adding to the pressure, a significant share unlock is scheduled for Thursday. Approximately 911.5 million shares owned by employees and early investors will become eligible for sale, representing a value of $104.4 billion based on Monday's closing price. This block is 1.43 times the total shares offered in the IPO (including the greenshoe option) and 12.9 times Monday's trading volume of 70.5 million shares. While eligibility does not guarantee immediate selling, the sheer size of the unlock could create downward pressure on the stock.
SpaceX shares have been volatile since its IPO. The stock closed at $114.53 on Monday, up 5.68% from the previous session, but still 15.2% below the IPO price of $135.00 and 49.2% below the record high of $225.64 reached on June 16. Over the past week, the stock fell 5.8%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.05% and 1.59%, respectively, before Monday's broad market rebound.
Operationally, SpaceX continues to make strides. On July 24, the 13th Starship mission successfully deployed a batch of enhanced Starlink satellites, though the booster did not achieve its intended controlled splashdown. SpaceX spokesperson Dan Huot said the team had aimed for “a softer splashdown.” Meanwhile, Falcon rockets maintained a rapid launch cadence, completing the 90th orbital mission of 2026 on July 31. Two more Starlink launches are scheduled for the coming weekend from California and Florida.
Despite these achievements, the company's valuation leaves little room for disappointment. At Monday's closing price, SpaceX was valued at nearly $1.51 trillion, trading at 77 times projected revenue. This high multiple means that any weakness in Starlink growth or an increase in spending could trigger a sell-off. Conversely, reduced capital expenditure or stronger compute bookings could prompt short covering and a rebound.
The upcoming week is shortened by the earnings release and the share unlock. The earnings webcast is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. EDT on Tuesday. Investors will be watching closely to see if Starlink's profitability can keep pace with the company's ambitious AI and space exploration plans. As one analyst put it, the main number to watch is not overall revenue, but how much Starlink can contribute to funding AI and Starship projects. Tuesday's report will indicate if that shortfall is closing.