NEW YORK, July 16, 2026 — Shares of SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) slipped below their initial public offering price on Wednesday, as market participants weighed the potential impact of an upcoming lockup expiration that could significantly increase the number of shares available for trading.
At 12:56 p.m. EDT, the stock was trading at $133.20, down 1.3% from the $135 offer price set during the company's June IPO. The decline comes as data from Ortex shows that 49% of the current free float is out on loan, with the vast majority of those shares backing short positions.
The first lockup release could add as many as 911.5 million newly eligible shares to the market, representing a 143% increase over the 638.9 million Class A shares sold in the IPO. If all those shares become tradable while borrowing remains flat, the proportion of shares out on loan would drop from 49% to roughly 20%, reducing the scarcity that has fueled short-squeeze speculation.
“The bears kept selling all the way down instead of taking profits,” said Peter Hillerberg, co-founder of Ortex. His firm estimates that short sellers have accumulated paper gains of approximately $8.7 billion since the IPO, but warns that the crowded trade remains vulnerable. Ortex calculates that for every $1 move in the stock, short sellers face exposure of more than $300 million. A 10% rally would erase about $4 billion of those gains.
SpaceX shares have fallen roughly 41% from their post-IPO peak of $225.64 and now trade at about 49 times expected revenue. “We won’t overweight it because they do have the lockup coming,” said Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, in comments to Reuters.
While slipping below the IPO price may raise concerns, historical data from Professor Jay Ritter shows that 44.5% of large IPOs traded below their offer price after three years. A separate Reuters review of 50 IPOs found that early laggards tended to continue underperforming, with a median return of 61% compared to 112% for stronger listings.
Adding to the narrative, SpaceX is scheduled to conduct the 13th test flight of its Starship rocket after the market close, with liftoff planned for 6:45 p.m. EDT. The company said the flight will attempt to deploy real Starlink V3 satellites for the first time, marking a key milestone for the program.
The risks remain two-sided. A failed launch or heavy selling by newly unlocked holders could push losses further. Conversely, strong execution could force short sellers to cover quickly, given the elevated short interest. For investors, the $135 level is largely symbolic — the real opportunity lies in timing the release, whether by positioning for pre-release covering demand or post-release supply.
