NEW YORK, June 18, 2026 – SpaceX shares closed Thursday at $185, essentially unchanged from the previous session after recovering from a steep intraday decline. The stock hit a low of $172.12 before paring losses, with approximately 270 million shares changing hands. The session marked the second consecutive day of declines, leaving the stock about 18% below Tuesday's all-time high of $226.
Price Discovery Continues Amid Thin Float
The volatility underscores the ongoing price discovery process for the newly public aerospace giant. With only 4.2% of shares available for public trading—a smaller proportion than typical for an IPO of this scale—the stock remains susceptible to sharp swings. Retail investors, who received an outsized allocation, have been a key driver. Vanda Research data shows net retail purchases surged to over $300 million in the prior three sessions but cooled to just $9.1 million by Thursday afternoon.
“Given the magnitude of the IPO and the strong initial performance, some degree of profit-taking is not surprising,” noted Kat Liu, an analyst at IPOX Schuster. The selloff appeared company-specific rather than market-wide, as the S&P 500 rose 1.1% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.9% on Thursday, buoyed by strength in semiconductor stocks.
Options Activity Shatters Records
Options trading in SpaceX has been unprecedented. On Tuesday, when contracts began trading, volume hit approximately 1.8 million, shattering the previous single-company options debut record by more than fourfold. “We’ve never seen anything like it,” said Henry Schwartz, a derivatives executive at Cboe Global Markets. Options markets are currently pricing in an expected swing of roughly 10% in either direction next week.
Valuation Debate Intensifies
The wide trading swings reflect ongoing debate about valuation. SpaceX ended Tuesday at $201.80, giving it a market capitalization of about $2.66 trillion. The company reported 2025 revenue of $18.67 billion, but after merging with xAI, it posted a net loss of $4.94 billion. “Feels like one of those meme stocks,” commented Joe Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading, pointing to the rapid moves and heavy trader focus.
Despite the recent pullback, the stock remains 37% above its $135 IPO price. SpaceX raised $75 billion in the offering, placing its valuation at $1.77 trillion. Some analysts remain bullish: Arete’s Andrew Beale has a $401 price target, while Zephirin Group targets $310, citing growth in Starlink, increased satellite capacity, and demand for launch services. Both targets, however, rely on aggressive expansion in capital-intensive areas.
Bond Sale on the Horizon
Banks are preparing to approach investors as early as next week regarding a bond sale of at least $20 billion, according to sources familiar with the matter. The debt, expected to be investment-grade, would be used to refinance a bridge loan tied to SpaceX’s acquisition of xAI and to fund its ambitious push into artificial intelligence. The final size may vary.
Index Inclusion Could Shift Dynamics
U.S. markets are closed Friday for Juneteenth, and attention is turning to next week’s potential inclusion of SpaceX in major stock indexes. Inclusion could force buying from benchmark-tracking funds, providing a floor for the stock. However, if those flows fail to materialize, or if the bond deal becomes larger or more expensive, downside risks could increase. For now, SpaceX is trading less like an established mega-cap and more like a hot, unsettled stock, with its true value still being determined in real time.
