Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) closed at $162.00 on Thursday, July 3, 2026, marking a 20% gain from its $135 initial public offering price but still 28% below its all-time high of $225.64 reached shortly after its market debut in June. U.S. markets were closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday.
The stock's journey has been volatile since its listing. Nasdaq Inc. (NASDAQ:NDAQ) reported that SpaceX raised $85.7 billion in its IPO, including the underwriters' overallotment, placing its market capitalization at $2.1 trillion on day one. The shares opened at $150 and closed at $160.95 on their first day, a 19.2% increase from the IPO price.
Wide Analyst Price Targets Reflect Uncertainty
Analyst sentiment on SpaceX is deeply divided. According to Barron's, seven of 13 analysts rate the stock a Buy, but price targets range from $165 to $310. Daiwa's Jonathan Kees initiated coverage with a Hold rating and a $175 target, citing strong assets but high build-out risk. Susquehanna's Charles Minervino rates it Neutral with a $170 target, preferring a better entry point. Wedbush's Dan Ives is bullish with an Outperform and $190 target, while Oppenheimer's Timothy Horan sees Outperform potential at $250, driven by AI revenue growth from the Cursor deal.
On the bearish side, Morningstar equity analyst Nicolas Owens assigns a fair value of just $63 per share, describing his valuation as "mathematics more than skepticism." Even his most optimistic scenario, which he gives only a 7% probability, reaches just $154—still below the current trading price. Kailash Concepts describes the sales multiple as "catastrophic," noting the stock trades at roughly 100 times 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion.
Index Rebalance Drives Mechanical Demand
A key factor influencing SpaceX's short-term price action is its upcoming addition to the Nasdaq-100 index, scheduled for July 7. This has triggered significant passive buying from index-tracking funds. ETF.com estimates that Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) alone will purchase about $4.3 billion worth of SpaceX shares. JPMorgan's estimate of passive inflows tied to the rebalance is also around $4.3 billion, according to Reuters. However, total index-tracking demand across Nasdaq-100 and Russell-related ETFs is projected to range from $22 billion to $27 billion, representing 21.4% to 26.3% of the IPO shares sold.
This mechanical buying pressure, driven by index funds rebalancing rather than fundamental views on the company, has made short-term valuation particularly challenging. Options desks are also tracking the scarcity trade, with CNBC's Oliver Renick noting heightened interest in SpaceX options following the IPO.
Revenue and Cash Flow Concerns
Despite the lofty market cap, SpaceX's 2025 revenue was just $18.7 billion, with a net loss of $4.9 billion, as reported by Business Insider citing the S-1 filing. Starlink generated $11.39 billion in sales, while space operations contributed $4.09 billion and AI brought in $3.2 billion. The AI segment also incurred $12.7 billion in capital expenditures.
The valuation debate centers on whether the company's future potential in AI, space infrastructure, and reusable Starship technology justifies the current price. Bulls argue these growth avenues will eventually deliver outsized returns. Bears, however, focus on the present financials. Wedbush's Ives team warned in a note quoted by Investopedia, "Cash burn means the thesis can expire."
Nasdaq markets were closed July 3 for Independence Day observance. Regular trading hours resume Monday, with the Nasdaq-100 change taking effect before the open on July 7.
