In a notable but cautious development, three Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) carrying a combined 6 million barrels of Middle Eastern crude oil successfully navigated the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, according to shipping data from LSEG and Kpler. The vessels, which had been waiting for over two months, exited the waterway en route to destinations in Asia, signaling a potential easing of the blockade that has crippled global oil flows since late February.
The tankers—Universal Winner, Yuan Gui Yang, and Ocean Lily—are bound for South Korea and China, with cargoes destined for major refiners including SK Energy and Sinopec. A fourth tanker was observed entering the strait, suggesting a gradual, though still fragile, resumption of traffic. However, analysts caution that this movement remains the exception rather than the rule, as the broader impact of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran continues to constrain shipping through the chokepoint, which normally handles about one-fifth of the world's oil and energy supplies.
Market Reaction and Diplomatic Signals
Brent crude futures dropped more than 4% to $106.52 per barrel on Wednesday, driven by remarks from President Donald Trump indicating that negotiations with Iran were in their "final stages." The decline reflects a market oscillating between hopes for a diplomatic resolution and persistent fears of supply disruptions. Despite the price dip, the underlying risk remains elevated, with Citi analysts projecting Brent could reach $120 soon, while Wood Mackenzie warns of prices nearing $200 if the Hormuz chokepoint remains largely closed through year-end.
U.S. Navy Warns of Continued High Risk
The U.S. Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center has classified the area as "high risk," citing recent ship attacks and "aggressive hailing and assertive action by Iranian units" in the past 48 hours. Shipping groups have flagged ongoing threats from drones, mines, and increased traffic, compounded by reduced military oversight. Iran has tightened its control over transit, implementing new systems of route approvals, inspections, and alleged fees, according to a Reuters report. "Some will get through because of political alliances, others will have to pay, others will be turned back. This is the new norm," said Danny Citrinowicz, senior Iran researcher at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies.
Diplomatic Uncertainty Persists
Diplomatic signals remain mixed. President Trump told reporters the U.S. would give negotiations "one shot," hinting at further strikes if talks fail. Meanwhile, Tehran accused Washington of planning to resume hostilities, and the Revolutionary Guards warned of strikes outside the region if Iran is attacked again. "Investors want to see if Washington and Tehran actually come to terms and agree on peace, with the U.S. position changing day by day," noted Toshitaka Tazawa, analyst at Fujitomi Securities.
The limited tanker movement underscores that Hormuz is not operating normally. Shipments are occurring on a case-by-case basis, and while three vessels have broken the logjam, approximately 100 tankers that entered the strait before the conflict began remain stuck. This situation highlights the substantial volume of oil, crew safety concerns, and geopolitical risk still trapped in the region.
