DETROIT, May 19, 2026 – The automotive industry is facing fresh supply chain pressures as disruptions in the Middle East begin to affect the availability of motor oils, particularly synthetic variants used in newer vehicles. Nissan recently retracted a bulletin warning of potential U.S. motor oil shortages, but the automaker acknowledged that conditions could shift rapidly, according to a report from Hearst Television's Washington News Bureau on Monday.
The issue extends beyond gasoline, with base oil—the primary component of most lubricants—becoming scarcer just as summer driving and vehicle service demand peak. The Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association (ILMA) notes that base oils constitute approximately 75% of engine lubricants, and prices are climbing due to Middle East conflict, reduced refining in South Korea, and refinery economics favoring diesel production.
Group III Base Oil Under Pressure
Group III base oil, a highly refined petroleum product used in low-viscosity synthetic oils such as 0W-8 and 0W-16, is particularly affected. These oils are critical for modern engines designed to reduce friction and improve fuel economy. According to ILMA, about 44% of U.S. demand for Group III base oil is met by supplies from the Persian Gulf. Shipments from the region have been disrupted following damage to Shell's Pearl GTL plant in Qatar, force majeure declarations in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Nissan plans to manage supplies of its Genuine Oil, including Mobil and Mobil 1 brands, at 55% of last year's volume due to a supplier-driven price change, as outlined in a draft bulletin seen by The Drive. A Nissan spokesperson confirmed the document's authenticity but stated it had not yet been sent to dealers. The company is closely monitoring oil supply constraints with its suppliers, the spokesperson added.
Automakers Respond
Toyota is also grappling with potential shortages. The Drive reported seeing a purported dealer bulletin from Toyota warning of possible shortages of 0W-8 and 0W-16 oils and suggesting dealers use alternative oils for now. Toyota had not confirmed the bulletin's authenticity at the time of publication. General Motors, meanwhile, is maintaining strict enforcement of its Dexos licensing program for approved engine oils, despite calls from ILMA for temporary relief. GM has expedited reviews of alternative base oils and blends but has not provided the short-term flexibility sought by the industry, according to ILMA CEO Holly Alfano.
Wider Industry Impact
Concerns are spreading beyond automakers. Shell, Valvoline, and O'Reilly Automotive have all flagged rising costs or potential supply disruptions, as reported by Axios. Amanda Hay of ICIS noted that actual shortages are beginning to appear for some synthetic oil products, though lubricant analyst Tom Glenn told Axios it is not yet a broad retail shortage. Drivers may first face fewer choices rather than outright scarcity. GasBuddy petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan described the next oil change as potentially more of a headache, while ILMA's director of communications Caitlin Jacobs advised drivers to proceed with service if a shop offers an approved substitute.
Broader Market Context
The oil market remains extremely tight. The International Energy Agency reported last week that losses from the Middle East have exceeded 1 billion barrels, with over 14 million barrels per day of production shut in, calling it an unprecedented shock. Refining margins are also under pressure. Chinese state refiners, including Sinopec, PetroChina, CNOOC, and Sinochem, have reduced crude runs by over 1 million barrels per day since the war in Iran began, according to Reuters on Tuesday. Supply issues and poor margins drove these cuts.
However, risks are not one-sided. An increase in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and a faster recovery of Gulf output could prevent dealer supply warnings from spreading to retailers. Still, ICIS noted Tuesday that Strait of Hormuz transit levels remain well below pre-crisis norms, even as crude prices dipped when U.S. President Donald Trump paused a strike on Iran. For now, the expected impact is higher prices, stricter allocation, and more product swaps at service counters, rather than empty shelves. ILMA's May guidance warned that some high-end synthetic products could disappear for a while, and base-oil market conditions are unlikely to normalize before mid-2027.
