NEW YORK, May 9, 2026 – U.S. gasoline prices edged down to $4.530 a gallon on Saturday, according to AAA, offering little relief after a week of sharp increases. The national average slipped just 1.6 cents from Friday, though it remains 9.7 cents above last week and 36.4 cents higher than a month ago. Diesel averaged $5.650 per gallon.
Supply Constraints Keep Prices Elevated
Despite the slight decline, underlying supply dynamics suggest prices may not fall quickly. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that gasoline inventories fell by 2.5 million barrels for the week ending May 1, leaving stocks 4% below the five-year average. Gasoline production edged down to 9.6 million barrels per day, while product supplied—a key demand indicator—averaged 9.0 million barrels daily over the past four weeks, up 1% from a year ago.
Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to a record low of 48.2 in early May, as high fuel costs continue to squeeze household budgets. Director Joanne Hsu noted that consumers are “buffeted by cost pressures,” with gasoline at the pump leading the pain.
Geopolitical Risks and Oil Market Uncertainty
Oil prices ended the week mixed, with Brent crude finishing at $101.29 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate at $95.42. Traders are weighing potential progress on a U.S.-Iran agreement against escalating tensions near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping corridor that has been a key driver of energy market volatility since late winter. “We’re treading water here,” said John Kilduff of Again Capital. Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group described the market as a “headline-o-rama game.”
Regional Price Variations
AAA reported that the national average jumped another 25 cents for the second consecutive week, reaching $4.55—the highest since 2022. California led the nation at $6.16 per gallon, followed by Washington at $5.76 and Hawaii at $5.66. Drivers in Oklahoma, Mississippi, and Louisiana saw prices near $4.00.
Outlook: Relief Unlikely Before Summer
GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan warned that a continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz could keep summer prices above $4.50 per gallon. Even if tanker traffic resumes soon, he told Axios that only about a third of the recent spike might roll back over the next month or two. Rob Smith, fuels analyst at S&P Global Energy, estimates it could take months for Hormuz shipping to normalize, even if the conflict ends.
Citi analysts maintain a bearish oil-price scenario, with a base case assuming Strait flows improve by the end of May. However, they set a zero-to-three-month Brent target of $120 a barrel, arguing that oil markets are “under-pricing duration and tail risks.”
For consumers, the threat of further price increases remains. A renewed escalation in Gulf tensions, a refinery outage, or a steeper drop in gasoline inventories could push the national average back toward this week’s peak. Relief would require an enduring ceasefire, stable shipping, and softer crude prices—factors that would need to flow through wholesale and retail channels before drivers see any real easing at the pump.
The EIA’s weekly petroleum report due May 13 will be the next key data point. Until then, gasoline price forecasts remain in limbo, with prices likely to slip a few cents if the market stays calm, but staying north of $4.50 if supply jitters persist.
