NEW YORK, July 3, 2026 – Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI) ended Thursday's trading session at $27.22, marking an 11.1% decline from June 26. U.S. equities were closed on Friday for Independence Day, resulting in a shortened four-day trading week.
The company's market capitalization now stands at approximately $18.84 billion, which is only about 0.48 times the $39 billion in AI server orders it disclosed in June from over 20 customers. This valuation gap highlights the market's skepticism regarding the firmness of those orders and the associated risks.
Company-Specific Weakness
Super Micro's decline was not mirrored by the broader AI hardware sector. NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) gained 1.2% over the same period, while the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) rose 0.9%. Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE:DELL) fell only 1.3%, significantly outperforming Super Micro. This divergence underscores that the pressure on SMCI was company-specific.
Legal and Financing Risks
Adding to investor concerns, Super Micro disclosed that two of its employees in Taiwan remain detained and two others were released on bail amid an investigation into alleged illegal exports of AI servers using NVIDIA chips. The company emphasized that it is not the target of the probe. Chief Revenue Officer Matt Thauberger assured customers that there was no raid on the company's Taiwan offices and that the situation has had "absolutely no impact" on customer service.
On the financing front, Super Micro announced plans to raise up to $7.0 billion in total equity proceeds through a combination of common stock, depositary shares, and a $1.25 billion at-the-market (ATM) program. The company also clarified that its $39 billion in orders are not firm commitments and could be canceled or delayed, further fueling market caution.
Stock Performance and Outlook
Despite reassurances, SMCI shares continued to slide throughout the week, falling 8.1% on Monday, gaining 4.2% on Tuesday, then dropping 5.7% on Wednesday and 1.6% on Thursday. Since June 9, when the AI order financing plan was revealed, the stock has lost 33.0%.
Bob Lang of Explosive Options told Barron's that he was "looking at alternatives to SMCI," noting that earlier weakness at Super Micro made Dell a more attractive option. While Dell outperformed SMCI over the four sessions, it still fell 5.2% on Thursday.
Looking ahead, the ATM program has entered its first eligible quarter and can now sell shares depending on market conditions. Key support levels to watch are $26.70 from July 2, with resistance at $29.22 from Thursday. U.S. markets will reopen after the holiday, and investors will be closely monitoring any developments regarding the Taiwan investigation and the company's order book.
