New York, July 10, 2026 — Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares edged higher in late trading on Friday, but the stock remains below its level at the start of July, even after the company reported record second-quarter delivery numbers. The mixed market reaction reflects ongoing uncertainty about the quality of those sales and their impact on profitability.
At 3:48 p.m. EDT, TSLA was up 0.8% at $409.67, still 3.7% below its July 1 close of $425.30. The modest gain came despite a delivery beat that exceeded Visible Alpha’s consensus estimate by 19.2%.
The headline number was strong: Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in the quarter, while producing 451,758. That left a net drawdown of 28,368 units from inventory, equivalent to about 5.9% of deliveries. The company has warned that delivery figures alone do not capture the full earnings picture, noting that profits and cash flow also depend on average selling prices, production costs, and currency fluctuations.
The inventory reduction is a key focal point for analysts. On the surface, it suggests real demand that outpaced production, which could improve cash conversion. However, it also raises the possibility that Tesla relied on price cuts or incentives to clear stock, potentially squeezing automotive gross margins. Full financial results, due after the market close on July 22, will reveal whether the inventory drawdown was a strategic adjustment or a costly fix.
David Wagner, head of equity at Aptus Capital Advisors, a Tesla shareholder, told Reuters: “The big money is still waiting to see if Tesla can actually deliver” on artificial intelligence, robotaxis, and self-driving technology. His comments underscore the market’s focus beyond near-term vehicle sales toward the company’s longer-term growth drivers.
Analyst opinions on Tesla’s future value drivers remain divided. Citizens analyst Andrew Boone initiated coverage with a Market Perform rating, arguing that expectations for the Optimus humanoid robot are “too optimistic” for now, and that physical AI will need more time to scale than the market anticipates. In contrast, UBS analyst Joseph Spak raised his price target on Tesla to $442 from $364, citing increased value for the company’s AI and robotics efforts, though he maintained a Neutral rating and did not upgrade his outlook on vehicle sales or profit.
Tesla’s stock has been volatile in recent weeks. Shares dropped 7.5% to $393.45 on July 2, the day after the delivery report was released. They rebounded 6.7% to $419.77 on Monday, following the launch of robotaxi service in Miami, but that was still 1.3% below the pre-report level. In late trading Friday, Tesla outperformed peers Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN), which fell 1.7%, and Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID), which dropped 4.1%. The Nasdaq Composite gained about 0.3%.
The inventory drawdown could be a positive signal if it reflects genuine demand and improved cash conversion, rather than aggressive discounting. If automotive margins hold steady and robotaxi adoption accelerates, the stock could recover to its $425 level. The risk is that incentives have depressed prices while spending on AI, robotics, and autonomous driving continues to climb, leaving earnings and cash flow too light to support the current valuation.
When Tesla reports on July 22, investors will look past the delivery numbers to the key metrics: automotive gross margin, cash flow from operations, and updates on robotaxi and Optimus plans. These will determine whether clearing 28,368 vehicles from inventory was a smart adjustment or a costly quarter-end fix.
