NEW YORK — Walmart Inc. (NASDAQ:WMT) shares declined 1.06% to close at $110.65 on Monday, then slipped further to $110.23 in after-hours trading as of 5:01 p.m. EDT. The move came amid a broader market rally that saw the S&P 500 rise 0.7%, the Nasdaq Composite gain 1.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average add 155.84 points to 53,055.91. Trading volume surged to 28.88 million shares, 36% above the 65-day average, signaling heightened investor attention.
The weakness followed a Reuters report after the closing bell that President Donald Trump announced Walmart had agreed to reduce prices on a wide range of products following a White House request tied to the nation’s 250th anniversary celebrations. Trump specifically cited a reduction of "almost" 15% on the price of a pound of ground beef. The news introduces a fresh pricing challenge for the retail giant, which is already trading well below its peak valuation.
Walmart first reached a $1 trillion market capitalization in February, when Reuters noted the stock at $127.10. As of Monday’s close, the company’s market cap stood at approximately $890.03 billion according to MarketWatch data, roughly $110 billion below that milestone. The stock now trades about 13% below the $127.10 level cited at the time of the trillion-dollar valuation.
Analyst Targets and Valuation
Despite the recent decline, Wall Street remains broadly bullish on Walmart. The StockAnalysis consensus of 43 analysts yields a 12-month average price target of $138.59, implying upside of more than 25% from Monday’s close. MarketWatch’s snapshot of 45 ratings shows an average target of $140.45, with a median of $140.00, a low of $120.00, and a high of $155.00. The average recommendation is "Overweight."
However, the gap between the current price and analyst targets does not equate to a bargain. At Monday’s close, Walmart trades at roughly 38.2 times the current fiscal year EPS estimate of $2.90 and 33.7 times the next fiscal year estimate of $3.28. These elevated multiples leave little margin for error if price cuts drive traffic but compress operating-income growth.
Earnings Guidance and Operating Outlook
Walmart’s latest company guidance calls for second-quarter net sales growth of 4% to 5% in constant currency, adjusted operating income growth of 7% to 10%, and adjusted EPS of $0.72 to $0.74. The top end of the EPS range matches the MarketWatch current-quarter estimate of $0.74, but in May, Reuters reported that LSEG expectations stood at $0.75, with net-sales growth seen at 5.09%. First-quarter results showed revenue of $177.8 billion, up 7.3% year over year, with global e-commerce growth of 26% and U.S. comparable sales rising 4.1%. Operating income grew 5.0%, though it was impacted by higher fuel costs in distribution and fulfillment.
John Furner, Walmart’s president and CEO, noted that the quarter reflected "better shopping experiences" and growth in "higher-margin commerce solutions." However, CFO John David Rainey cautioned that the retailer is "not immune" to economic pressure, and Furner acknowledged that U.S. consumers are "feeling some pressure."
Market Context and Back-to-School Season
The pricing news comes as retailers have moved promotions earlier in the back-to-school season, with families facing higher food and gas bills. Reuters reported Monday that retailers are accelerating promotional efforts, and PwC estimates average back-to-school spending of approximately $922 this year, up 47% from 2025. Jeffrey Degner, a research fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research, described August and September as a "lower-margin timeframe" for retailers.
Bryan Hayes, stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research, told Reuters in May that Walmart’s affirmed full-year outlook "was not enough" after the stock had traded near multi-year highs. He added that Walmart is taking "real traffic share" rather than merely benefiting from price inflation.
Monday’s trading session was dominated by AI and chip stocks, with defensive retail names taking a back seat. For WMT holders, the near-term test is whether any new price cuts can drive sufficient volume to protect the operating-income growth forecast. The stock remains below its 52-week high of $135.16, and the implied move to analyst targets suggests a potential recovery, but valuation and margin pressures present significant headwinds.
