New York, July 11, 2026 – The recent decline in XRP's exchange supply appears less dramatic when viewed through a wider lens. According to a narrow gauge that tracks coins on select venues, balances have dropped to approximately 1.6 billion XRP, down from 3.76 billion in October 2025. However, a more comprehensive scan of 22 exchanges on Saturday revealed a total of 15.68 billion XRP distributed across those platforms—a figure nearly 10 times higher than the narrow measure suggests.
Data Discrepancy Raises Questions
This gap is significant because traders often interpret exchange outflows as coins leaving the market, which can signal bullish sentiment. Yet, on-chain demand signals are weakening. Daily active addresses have fallen to 22,888 from a low of 25,350, while new address creation, a key metric for network growth, dropped to 2,130—its lowest level since November 2024. Taken together, these data points paint a less optimistic picture than the headline of a seven-year low might imply.
Comparative Data Points
- Narrow exchange-balance series: 1.60 billion XRP, down 57.4% since October
- Broader mapped exchange wallets: 15.68 billion XRP, 9.8 times the narrow measure
- U.S. spot ETF custody: 964.5 million XRP, accounting for about 44.7% of the decline in the narrow series
- Daily active addresses: 22,888, down 9.7% from 25,350
- New addresses: 2,130, the fewest since November 2024
Exchange Data Not Comparable
The exchange numbers are not directly comparable, as they track different platforms, wallet tags, and custody methods. The ETF share is notable in scale but does not imply that those funds were sourced directly from the exchanges in the stricter dataset. According to a live dashboard, seven U.S. spot ETFs—which hold XRP for investors—had 964.5 million XRP locked up as of Saturday. ETF inventory for XRP has not tightened steadily; on July 8, inventory stood at 970.9 million tokens, after a net addition of 4.3 million XRP from June 30 to July 8. Holdings then dropped by about 6.4 million. The remaining decline on exchanges could be attributed to transfers to private wallets, unknown custodians, smaller platforms, or shifts in wallet labels.
Market Context and Expert Insights
Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, commented that the ETF launch highlighted “significant demand for unique assets with unique return profiles,” noting that most investors are using the funds as components of broader crypto portfolios. This kind of demand does not necessarily align with strong on-chain activity, as a brokerage customer can acquire an ETF share without ever opening an XRP wallet or executing an on-chain transaction.
XRP has remained soft this week, trading near $1.11 on Saturday. The latest 24-hour volume was down about a third from the previous day. Over the last seven days, XRP underperformed Bitcoin and Ether but dropped roughly as much as Solana. Specifically, XRP fell 5.2%, while Bitcoin gained 2.0%, Ether added 1.7%, and Solana dropped 5.3%.
Regulatory Outlook
U.S. ETF markets were closed on Saturday, but XRP continued to trade. Looking ahead, the Senate has a 3 p.m. session scheduled for Monday, July 13. There is no CLARITY Act vote on the calendar, though reports indicate a committee draft merging Banking and Agriculture may emerge next week, with Senate movement possible in late July. Democrats have not yet reached an agreement on ethics rules. David Nage, managing director and portfolio manager at Arca, noted in June that the bill was “80–85% finished,” but cautioned that its placement on the Senate calendar does not signal an imminent final vote. Key issues such as committee language, ethics wording, and DeFi protections for blockchain services without a central intermediary remain unresolved.
Risks and Opportunities
Exchange wallet data is imperfect—it can miss custodians, mislabel flows, or misinterpret internal shifts as real withdrawals. While low wallet activity does not necessarily indicate absent demand, a solid legislative win or a surge in ETF buying could push XRP higher if tradable supply is indeed constrained. Conversely, if policy stalls and address creation remains below 25,000, the token will depend on existing holders rather than new capital. The true test for XRP in the coming week will be a pickup in wallet creation, stable ETF custody, and a narrowing of its performance gap with Bitcoin and Ether. For now, the scarcity narrative is more about where tokens reside than about new buyers entering the market.
