XRP retreated on Friday, sliding to around $1.44 after briefly touching the $1.54-$1.55 range earlier in the session. The pullback came as traders refocused on macroeconomic pressures, including rising U.S. Treasury yields and diminishing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
According to CoinMarketCap, XRP was down 0.64% over the past 24 hours, with Bybit recording a session high near $1.54 and a low around $1.43. The decline follows a brief rally sparked by regulatory news, but broader risk-on sentiment soured as bond yields climbed.
On Thursday, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee advanced the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R. 3633) with a 15-9 vote, sending it to the Senate floor. The bill would allow certain crypto firms to raise up to $50 million annually—capped at $200 million—without registering with the SEC, potentially easing fundraising hurdles. However, the positive regulatory momentum was overshadowed by macro headwinds.
U.S. Treasury yields rose to their highest levels in about a year on Friday, according to Reuters, as traders priced in the possibility of a Fed rate hike due to inflation risks from energy shocks linked to the Iran war. Daniel von Ahlen, senior macro strategist at GlobalData TS Lombard, described markets as bracing for a "much more volatile inflation climate." Global yields have reached levels "high enough to hurt sentiment," added Eugene Leow, senior rates strategist at DBS.
XRP futures saw $6.83 billion in volume over the past 24 hours, with spot trading at $1.46 billion and open interest of $2.96 billion, per CoinGlass. Liquidations totaled $17.1 million, reflecting forced trade closures as leveraged positions unwound.
The broader crypto market also felt the pressure. Bitcoin hovered near $79,065, while ether traded around $2,216, both declining. The retreat in XRP fits into a wider slump across risk assets, with macro factors driving the action rather than token-specific news.
Federal Reserve officials offered little relief. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid called "continued inflation" the top risk to the economy, a hawkish signal from a non-voting policymaker. UBS Global Wealth Management delayed its forecast for Fed rate cuts to December 2026 and March 2027, citing persistent inflation and a resilient labor market. CME FedWatch showed an 87.4% probability that the Fed skips a September cut.
Prediction markets echoed the bearish rate outlook. On Polymarket, traders assigned a 67% probability to zero Fed rate cuts in 2026, with a 16% chance of a single cut. Another Polymarket market gave a 35% probability to a rate hike in 2026.
Kalshi's pricing for XRP reflected uncertainty: a 30% chance the token clears $1.60 in May and a 30% chance it slides under $1.30. The bearish case suggests XRP could struggle to defend the $1.40-$1.45 support zone if rate cut optimism continues to erode and leveraged positions unwind further.
