Shares of Ambev S.A. fell 1.9% to 16.29 reais in São Paulo trading on Thursday, underperforming the broader Ibovespa index, which slipped 0.39% to 175,063 points. The decline came after Goldman Sachs reiterated its sell rating and a 12.90-real price target, warning that the brewer's ability to raise prices further is constrained by weakening consumer demand and slowing beer inflation.
Goldman's note highlighted that beer volumes in Brazil dropped approximately 5% year-on-year in April, according to data from Scanntech. The bank argued that much of Ambev's first-quarter revenue-per-liter growth came from carry-over effects of earlier price increases, rather than fresh pricing moves. With inflation easing and consumers under pressure, Goldman sees limited room for further price hikes, making it difficult for Ambev to repeat its recent margin improvements.
On the other side of the analyst spectrum, BTG Pactual upgraded Ambev to a buy rating this week, raising its price target to 20 reais from 17 reais. Analysts Thiago Duarte and Guilherme Guttilla cited Ambev's broad product portfolio as a key competitive advantage and pointed to signs of maturity at rival Heineken in Brazil. The upgrade comes after BTG had been on the sidelines for 13 years, according to Brazil Stock Guide.
Ambev's first-quarter earnings, released on May 5, had initially boosted the stock by over 15%. The results showed organic net revenue growth of 8.1%, normalized EBITDA up 10.1%, and margins improving by 60 basis points to 33.6%. Volume growth, however, was a modest 0.1% organically. CEO Carlos Lisboa described the quarter as "a solid start to 2026," while CFO Guilherme Fleury noted that a World Cup year typically adds 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to full-year industry growth, with most impact in the second and third quarters.
The stock traded below its 52-week high of 17.04 reais and saw heavy volume in its U.S.-listed ADR, which dropped 2.1% to $3.20 on 35.5 million shares traded. Thursday's session ran on B3's normal schedule, with the next planned exchange closure on June 4 for Corpus Christi.
The market remains divided on Ambev's outlook. While BTG's upgrade suggests renewed confidence in the brewer's pricing power and portfolio strength, Goldman's caution reflects risks from softer demand and cost pressures. If April's volume weakness persists and inflation continues to moderate, the margin story that supported the post-earnings rally could quickly unravel. Investors are now watching for signs of whether the recent price gains are sustainable or if the stock has already priced in the best-case scenario.
