AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) has announced a strategic shift in its launch plans, moving its next mission to SpaceX after a failed deployment on Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket. The company will send three next-generation BlueBird satellites into orbit aboard a Falcon 9 rocket in mid-June, aiming to recover from the loss of BlueBird 7 last month.
Background and Impact
The decision comes swiftly after BlueBird 7 was lost during an April 19 launch when Blue Origin's New Glenn booster failed to deliver the satellite to its intended orbit. Although the spacecraft powered up, its orbit was too low for sustained operation, forcing AST to de-orbit it. The setback tightened pressure on the Texas-based firm's timeline for its space-based cellular broadband network, which aims to connect standard smartphones directly to satellites without specialized hardware.
Launch Cadence and Production
AST SpaceMobile is targeting a launch cadence of roughly one mission every one to two months. The upcoming Falcon 9 flight will carry three Block 2 BlueBird satellites, which feature large phased-array antennas covering nearly 2,400 square feet. These next-generation satellites, equipped with the AST5000 chip, are designed to deliver peak speeds of 120 Mbps per coverage cell, enabling high-speed cellular broadband directly to unmodified phones.
Despite the BlueBird 7 loss, AST insists production remains on track. The company reports that it is still producing satellites at BlueBird 32, and BlueBirds 8 through 10 should be ready to ship within approximately 30 days. AST maintains its goal of having about 45 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026, a key milestone for commercial service.
Regulatory and Partnership Momentum
Regulatory tailwinds have bolstered AST's outlook. Last month, the FCC granted approval for up to 248 low-Earth-orbit satellites under Supplemental Coverage from Space rules, using 700 MHz and 800 MHz bands in partnership with Verizon, AT&T, and FirstNet. CEO Abel Avellan stated that the company is "accelerating deployment" and moving closer to commercial rollout.
Carrier partnerships are central to AST's strategy. AT&T and AST finalized a definitive agreement extending through 2030, while Verizon has its own arrangement to offer direct-to-cellular service to subscribers beginning in 2026. Notably, SpaceX is both a launch provider for AST and a competitor through its Starlink network, which powers T-Mobile's T-Satellite service for coverage in remote areas.
Market Reaction and Analyst Views
Investors responded positively to the SpaceX launch announcement, sending AST shares up nearly 15% to $75.05, pushing the company's market capitalization to approximately $20.5 billion. The stock has seen a dramatic 6,000% run-up, driven by retail investor enthusiasm, according to Bloomberg. However, analysts caution that risks remain. BofA analyst Michael Funk called the BlueBird 7 failure a "negative shock" but said it does not alter the underlying business case. He flagged ongoing concerns about AST's updated goal of 45 satellites by year-end, noting that any delays—whether from Falcon 9 scheduling, deployment issues, or slower satellite production—could undermine the target.
Upcoming Catalysts
AST SpaceMobile is scheduled to report its next business update on May 11, where management will address production capacity, launch pace, and the timeline for transitioning from demonstrations to commercial service. The shift to SpaceX for the upcoming mission is a critical test, as the company seeks to maintain momentum and prove its network's viability.
