Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (NYSE: SPCE) saw its shares rally 17.13% to close at $2.94 on Friday, rebounding from Thursday's decline. The stock touched an intraday high of $3.03, with over 16 million shares changing hands, as investors positioned ahead of the company's first-quarter earnings report next week.
Earnings Preview and Cash Burn Concerns
The company is scheduled to release its Q1 results after the U.S. market close on Thursday, May 14, followed by a conference call at 5 p.m. Eastern. Analysts surveyed by MarketBeat project a first-quarter loss of $0.79 per share on revenue of just $0.2 million, underscoring the ongoing financial strain as the company awaits a return to commercial operations.
For the fourth quarter of 2025, Virgin Galactic reported revenue of $0.3 million, a net loss of $63 million, and free cash flow burn of $95 million. The company ended 2025 with $338 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, a cushion that will be tested as it funds development and testing of its next-generation Delta spacecraft.
Delta Spacecraft Timeline
Management has reiterated its commitment to beginning Delta spacecraft flight tests in the third quarter and resuming commercial service in the fourth quarter. The company's first next-generation SpaceShip remains in ground tests, with plans to move to flight tests later this year. CEO Michael Colglazier noted in the company's March business update that Virgin Galactic has completed pivotal milestones and is gearing up to begin rocket motor assembly at its Phoenix facility.
Virgin Galactic has also reopened ticket sales for suborbital flights at $750,000 per seat, a significant increase from previous pricing, betting that demand for space tourism remains robust once its upgraded fleet is operational.
Analyst Sentiment and Market Context
Wall Street remains cautious. Of the six analysts tracked by MarketBeat, two rate the stock a Sell, three a Hold, and only one a Buy, with a consensus rating of Reduce. The average 12-month price target stands at $3.33. In April, Susquehanna's Charles Minervino raised his target to $3.00 but maintained a Neutral stance, while Jefferies' Greg Konrad lowered his target to $5.00 but kept a Buy rating.
Competition in the space tourism sector is evolving. Blue Origin announced in January it would halt New Shepard missions for at least two years after 38 flights carrying 98 passengers past the Kármán line. Meanwhile, SpaceX continues to dominate the private orbital flight market with its Crew Dragon capsule, though that segment operates at a higher price point than Virgin Galactic's suborbital service.
Risk Factors
Virgin Galactic acknowledged in its annual SEC filing that revenue has been minimal to date and that costs are likely to increase as new vehicles are developed and tested. The company expressed substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern, noting that it will need stronger financial results or additional capital to sustain operations.
Friday's stock surge puts added pressure on the May 14 earnings release. Investors will be looking for confirmation that the Delta spacecraft timeline remains on track, that costs are under control, and that ticket sales can generate cash before the company's balance sheet tightens further.
