In the race for California governor, Democrat Xavier Becerra has surged ahead of Republican Steve Hilton by a significant margin, according to the latest polling data. The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) survey, conducted in collaboration with the Los Angeles Times, shows Becerra leading Hilton 52% to 31% among registered voters statewide. This 21-point advantage underscores the Democratic stronghold in the state, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a wide margin.
Unofficial results from the California Secretary of State, updated on June 12, place Becerra at 28.1% of the vote, with 2,566,414 ballots cast in his favor. Hilton trails with 24.7% and 2,259,445 votes, while Democrat Tom Steyer holds 22.8%. The final results are expected to be certified by July 10, setting the stage for a November general election showdown.
Mark DiCamillo, director of the IGS Poll, characterized the upcoming contest as a “traditional, partisan-based general election,” emphasizing that Democrats’ registration edge gives Becerra “a huge advantage.” With approximately 45% of California voters registered as Democrats versus 25% as Republicans, the path to victory for Hilton appears steep.
Hilton, a former Fox News commentator who has received an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, is banking on voter frustration over affordability, housing, and the state’s one-party rule in Sacramento. “If you want change, vote for me,” Hilton stated, framing the race as a choice between the status quo and reform. However, Trump’s endorsement may prove a double-edged sword; the same IGS poll found that 69% of California voters disapprove of Trump, while only 37% of Republicans said the endorsement made them more likely to back Hilton.
Becerra, who served as California’s attorney general, U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services under President Biden, and a longtime congressman from Los Angeles, is highlighting his record of challenging the Trump administration’s policies. The Associated Press noted that Becerra filed at least 120 legal actions against Washington during Trump’s first term. In his primary night speech, Becerra declared, “I will never back down,” positioning the race as a fight for California’s future direction.
The broader context of the governor’s race is intertwined with California’s ongoing debates over water, artificial intelligence, agriculture, and the costs of growth. In a recent essay for The Guardian, writer Mark Arax drew parallels between the state’s Gold Rush era and modern battles over water and technology, describing a new era of “the mining of water and the mining of our minds.” He highlighted tensions between the San Joaquin Valley’s groundwater issues and Silicon Valley’s insatiable demand for water and electricity, which are driving affordability and growth discussions in the campaign.
California’s slow vote-counting process has also become a campaign issue. The Los Angeles Times reported that efforts to expand voter access and tighten security have slowed the tally, particularly in tight races like governor and Los Angeles mayor. “Voter confidence is eroding,” said Kim Alexander, president of the nonpartisan California Voter Foundation, though the report found no evidence of fraud in the last primary count, despite false claims circulating after polls closed.
As the general election approaches, the race will likely focus on key issues such as the economy, housing affordability, and the role of technology in the state’s future. With a significant lead in the polls and a strong Democratic base, Becerra appears well-positioned, but Hilton’s message of change and his appeal to disaffected voters could still shift dynamics in the months ahead.
