BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has spearheaded a recovery in the US spot Bitcoin ETF market, drawing in $496.0 million over the past two weeks. This influx helped the entire group of funds achieve net inflows of $272.9 million, breaking an eight-week streak of outflows, according to preliminary data from Farside Investors.
The strong performance of IBIT stood in stark contrast to its competitors, which collectively experienced $223.1 million in withdrawals. Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw the largest outflows, losing $274.5 million over the two-week period, while the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) gained $165.1 million. The data underscores a persistent concentration of investor interest in BlackRock's offering.
Despite the positive net figure, the recovery remains modest, recouping less than 3.4% of the losses from the prior downturn. Over the eight-week outflow period, the funds shed more than $8 billion, leaving a substantial deficit. Market breadth remains limited, with only a few funds attracting significant capital.
In the most recent week, IBIT recorded inflows of $204.1 million, overcoming a Monday redemption of $185.5 million. Fidelity's fund continued to struggle, with $181.1 million in outflows. Friday's session appeared robust, with the group posting a $132.3 million gain—its fourth consecutive positive day. IBIT contributed $136.5 million, while Fidelity saw a $4.2 million outflow.
Bitcoin's price has remained relatively stable, trading around $64,207 early Monday, down 0.7% for the session. The cryptocurrency moved within a range of $63,742 to $65,012 during the day, hovering near the key $64,000 level. Options traders have adopted a more bullish stance, with Deribit noting 20,000 July 31 call spreads positioned between $70,000 and $72,000. Jean-David Péquignot, Deribit's chief commercial officer, commented on the activity, noting large blocks in topside call spreads.
The macroeconomic calendar is relatively quiet this week, with US new-home sales data due on Friday. Earnings reports from major technology firms could influence risk sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's July 28-29 meeting. Ecoinometrics reports that ETF flows have stabilized, but BRN is waiting for a sustained multi-week positive trend to signal renewed institutional capital. The division in fund flows supports a cautious outlook.
Risks remain elevated, as Bitcoin is subject to significant volatility and potential illiquidity. Fidelity has cautioned that ETF investors risk losing their entire investment. For a broader market recovery, wider participation is needed. A third consecutive week of inflows driven by multiple funds would strengthen the case for a sustained rebound. If gains remain limited to IBIT alone, the recovery could remain precarious.
