GEO Group (NYSE: GEO) announced Monday a new agreement with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to provide 2,329 immigration detention beds at a Texas complex. The company expects the contract to generate roughly $200 million in annual revenue during its first full year of operations.
Per-Bed Revenue Mirrors Tacoma Contract
When measured on a per-bed basis, the Texas forecast is nearly identical to GEO’s recently renewed Tacoma contract. Dividing the projected annual revenue by the stated bed count yields approximately $85,874 per bed for Texas and $85,627 per bed for Tacoma—a difference of just 0.3%. The Tacoma facility, with 1,635 beds, is expected to bring in about $140 million annually under a new 10-year contract that runs through October 27, 2036.
The near-identical per-bed figures suggest that capacity, rather than pricing, accounts for almost the entire gap between the two revenue projections. Texas has 42.4% more beds than Tacoma and 42.9% higher expected revenue. Both estimates are approximate and not occupancy-adjusted, and the rounding leaves little room to claim a meaningful pricing premium for either location.
Big Spring Complex Details
The Texas complex comprises two facilities: Flightline with 1,404 beds and Cedar Hill with 925 beds. GEO said the 10-year agreement covers support services including security, maintenance, food and transportation. The company did not disclose an opening date or contract-level profit forecast. Revenue expectations alone do not establish how quickly the project will generate cash.
Chief Executive George Zoley said the project would help meet federal capacity needs, stating it would “play an important role in helping meet the need for increased federal immigration processing center bedspace.”
Combined Revenue and Context
Together, the Texas and Tacoma contracts represent approximately $340 million in annual revenue across 3,964 beds. However, this total combines two contracts with potentially different revenue periods and does not represent incremental growth, as Tacoma reflects continued operations.
For context, GEO reported second-quarter revenue of $732.1 million, up from $636.2 million a year earlier. The Big Spring project’s projected annual revenue equals 6.8% of that latest quarterly figure multiplied by four—a historical benchmark that does not forecast company sales or adjust for seasonality.
Flightline Renovation Registration
A Texas accessibility-project registration provides a separate record of work at Flightline. It lists an estimated $2 million renovation covering 5,924 square feet, with a target completion date of November 30, 2026. The status remains “Project Registered,” which does not confirm construction completion. The registered scope covers interior walls, millwork and enclosing a porch for offices—a limited project that should not be read as the full activation plan. Its estimated cost is not a disclosed GEO cash obligation under the ICE agreement.
Risks and What to Watch
Monday’s release does not specify Big Spring’s opening schedule or ramp-up costs. Staffing, required work and contract execution could affect revenue timing. The registered renovation target does not establish when the complex can be fully operational.
GEO has scheduled third-quarter results for November 5 before U.S. markets open, with a conference call at 13:00 Eastern time. Investors will be watching for management to specify Big Spring’s opening date, activation costs and the timing of its first full revenue year.
