Grab Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: GRAB) saw its shares climb 3.8% to $3.685 in late trading Monday in New York, with nearly 38.6 million shares changing hands. The move comes as investors weigh the impact of a regulatory change in Indonesia, one of the company's key markets, set to take effect July 1.
Starting next month, Grab and GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (IDX: GOTO) will reduce per-trip commissions for two-wheeled drivers in Indonesia to 8% from the current 20%. While the headline rate cut appears significant, analysts suggest the overall financial impact on Grab may be less severe than it seems, given the company's diversified geographic revenue base.
Geographic Revenue Breakdown
Indonesia accounted for 21.2% of Grab's total revenue in 2025, contributing $715 million out of $3.37 billion. This is less than Malaysia's 30.8% share ($1.04 billion) and roughly on par with Singapore's 21.6% ($727 million). Other markets include the Philippines (9.4%), Thailand (8.5%), Vietnam (7.6%), and the rest of Southeast Asia (0.9%). The diversified revenue mix helps cushion the impact of the Indonesian fee adjustment.
Buyback Program in Focus
Grab's $500 million share repurchase authorization, announced in March, represents about 3.4% of the company's market capitalization as of Monday's close. CFO Peter Oey has described the share price gap as a "clear opportunity to enhance shareholder value." Of the total authorization, $400 million is scheduled for execution, including $250 million via an accelerated share repurchase and up to $150 million set aside for a contingent forward purchase. While the buyback alone won't solve earnings challenges, it provides a steady buyer in the market as investors assess the Indonesian rule's effect on margins.
Recent Financial Performance
Grab reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $955 million, up 24% year-over-year, with net profit of $120 million. Adjusted EBITDA rose 46% to $154 million. The company maintained its full-year 2026 guidance, projecting revenue between $4.04 billion and $4.10 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $700 million to $720 million. On-Demand Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) reached $6.1 billion, also up 24% year-over-year, indicating that core business volumes remain healthy.
Incentives totaled $650 million in Q1, representing 10.5% of On-Demand GMV, up 46 basis points year-over-year, suggesting that take-rate pressure persists. The gross loan portfolio surged 130% to $1.44 billion, signaling rapid growth in financial services, though this segment remains loss-making with adjusted EBITDA of negative $17 million on $107 million in revenue (up 43%).
CEO Anthony Tan called Q1 a "strong start to 2026," while CFO Oey reiterated that the results keep Grab on track for its full-year targets.
Shares of Grab outperformed Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER), which fell 2.2%, while DoorDash (NASDAQ: DASH) and Sea Limited (NYSE: SE) posted modest gains. The broader market rallied, with the Nasdaq Composite rising 1.84% and the S&P 500 adding 1.07%.
