Dubai, September 20, 2026 — The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reported on Friday that American forces have facilitated more than 2,000 commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz over the past two months, carrying over one billion barrels of crude oil. This marks a significant milestone, with the latest two-week period seeing the highest volume of oil, LNG, and cargo traffic in six months.
The surge in traffic suggests that military escorts and mine-clearing operations are improving the safety and efficiency of passage through the critical chokepoint. However, independent monitoring groups note that overall traffic remains below pre-war levels, according to the Associated Press, indicating that the region is still far from full normalization.
Calculating the figures, one billion barrels over roughly 60 days translates to about 16.7 million barrels per day. This is approximately 80% of the 20.9 million barrels per day average seen in 2025. It is important to note that CENTCOM's timeframe is approximate and includes both crude and other petroleum products.
The cumulative count of U.S.-supported passages has more than doubled since July 21, when it stood at about 900 vessels and 450 million barrels. Admiral Brad Cooper, CENTCOM's commander, commented on the trend, saying, "Clearly, momentum is building." Yet, he cautioned that the count only includes U.S.-supported transits, while commercial trackers observe a broader range of vessel activity.
Despite the improving traffic, oil prices have eased for three consecutive sessions. Brent crude settled at $103.87 on Friday, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ended at $100.30. The premium over JPMorgan's September fair-value estimate of about $90 remains near $14, highlighting that the market still prices in a significant geopolitical risk.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that export constraints will persist through the end of the year, and Middle East production is expected to remain below pre-conflict levels until the second quarter of 2027. This outlook supports the sustained premium.
Forecasters are divided on the trajectory. JPMorgan sees fair value around $90, Morgan Stanley anticipates a fourth-quarter average near $100, and Goldman Sachs has a December target of $85 but acknowledges an adverse case above $120. The divergence reflects uncertainty about the pace of recovery in the region.
Physical bypass capacity remains limited. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines that can move about 4.7 million barrels per day, which is less than a quarter of the 2025 Hormuz flow. This constraint underscores the strategic importance of the strait and the potential for disruption.
The recent improvement in traffic could be a positive sign, potentially restoring output faster and compressing the risk premium. However, risks remain, including the imprecision of CENTCOM's data, differing tracker methodologies, and the possibility of new attacks or mines reversing the progress. The EIA's next outlook, due October 6, will provide further clarity on whether the higher traffic levels have influenced its $90 second-half Brent forecast.
