Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) saw its shares tumble 11.7% in premarket trading on Wednesday, August 26, 2026, after the company's full-year forecast for fiscal 2027 came in well below analyst expectations. The stock was trading at $315.77 as of 05:09 EDT, down from the previous close of $357.46, according to MarketWatch. This sharp decline erased approximately $11.4 billion from the company's market capitalization, underscoring the market's disappointment with the guidance.
The fiscal 2027 revenue guidance midpoint of $23.395 billion falls $324.5 million short of the LSEG consensus of $23.72 billion. This shortfall is roughly 35 times smaller than the market value wiped out, indicating that investors are pricing in more than just a single year of revenue miss. Concerns about the costs associated with Intuit's aggressive customer acquisition strategy are also weighing on sentiment.
Key Financials and Guidance
Intuit's fiscal 2027 revenue is projected to be in the range of $23.279 billion to $23.512 billion, while adjusted EPS is expected between $22.88 and $23.12, significantly below the analyst estimate of $27.32. The company also provided a modest first-quarter outlook, with revenue midpoint at $4.304 billion, about $56 million below the $4.36 billion consensus reported by Reuters.
In the most recent quarter, Intuit reported a 14% increase in revenue to $4.35 billion, beating the $4.27 billion forecast. However, the forward-looking guidance overshadowed the positive quarterly results.
TurboTax Pricing Reset
CEO Sasan Goodarzi indicated that price has become the primary factor driving customer attrition from TurboTax. To counter this, Intuit is reducing initial prices to attract more users, a move that will pressure short-term revenue per filer. TurboTax revenue grew 7% to $5.3 billion last year, but federal units declined 2% to 39 million. TurboTax Live revenue, however, surged 37% and now accounts for 53% of the franchise's results.
Management now projects TurboTax revenue growth of only 2% to 3% for fiscal 2027, a sharp deceleration from the 7% growth seen in fiscal 2026. The Consumer Group is expected to grow 4% to 6%, down from 11% a year ago.
Mailchimp and Other Segments
Mailchimp remains a weak spot, with Intuit forecasting annual revenue between $1.256 billion and $1.266 billion, implying flat growth to a 1% decline. However, the larger Global Business Solutions unit is expected to expand by 13% to 14%.
Investors should note that Intuit plans to incorporate share-based compensation costs into its adjusted results this year, which reduces projected adjusted EPS by $5.81. This accounting change makes comparisons with earlier analyst forecasts less straightforward.
Market Reaction and Analyst Sentiment
Wall Street sentiment remains generally positive, with 35 analysts maintaining a consensus Buy rating and an average price target of $446.02. However, targets vary widely, from Piper Sandler's $250 to Jefferies' $500.
Intuit enters this reset period with strong cash flow. Fiscal 2026 revenue increased 14% to $21.45 billion, and the company repurchased $5.5 billion in shares, ending the period with $7.2 billion in cash and investments.
Risks include slower-than-expected rebound in filer volumes despite lower prices, and potential margin pressure from increased discounting. Conversely, growth in TurboTax Live could offset softness in the DIY segment. The upcoming investor day on September 17 will be a key catalyst, with investors focused on customer acquisition goals and the impact of the pricing reset on margins.
