Keel Infrastructure Corp. (NASDAQ:KEEL; TSE:KEEL) enters Monday’s U.S. trading session with a split performance across exchanges. The stock closed at $4.59 on the Nasdaq on July 2, a steep 14.68% drop ahead of the U.S. market holiday on July 3 for Independence Day. In contrast, its Toronto-listed shares ended Friday up 0.77% at C$6.54, offering a preliminary signal for U.S. traders when markets reopen.
The Nasdaq close left the stock roughly 38% below the $7.41 initial conversion price on Keel’s $458 million 1.250% convertible senior note deal, which closed on June 9. Net proceeds from the offering were approximately $445.4 million, after expenses and capped-call costs. The capped-call strike price is set at $11.86. As long as shares remain below $7.41, the notes are out of the money, meaning conversion would not be economically attractive for holders.
Friday’s TSX trading provided an early read on sentiment after the selloff. The Canadian-listed shares rose modestly, but the move was in Canadian dollars and may not directly translate to Nasdaq pricing. The Nasdaq Composite finished the week up 2.1%, while the Russell 2000 slipped 0.5%, underscoring the divergence between Keel’s performance and broader small-cap trends.
Volume on July 2 was notably heavy, with 49.9 million shares changing hands on Nasdaq, representing 110.7% of the 65-day average, according to Barron’s/FactSet data. Short interest stood at 87.29 million shares, or 14.52% of the float, with total shares outstanding at 603.83 million. The day’s trading volume accounted for about 8.3% of shares outstanding and nearly 57% of reported short interest.
Despite the recent pullback, analyst sentiment remains bullish. Citizens analyst Greg Miller initiated coverage on June 24 with a Market Outperform rating and a $10 price target, citing Keel’s pivot from cryptocurrency to high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI) data centers. Miller highlighted the company’s roughly 2 gigawatt global pipeline, which he said could imply a long-term value of over $44 per share if fully leased and delivered.
Keel has emphasized that its near-term projects are fully funded. CFO Jonathan Mir stated in May that the company’s liquidity of approximately $533 million—comprising $336 million in unrestricted cash and $197 million in unencumbered Bitcoin as of May 8—fully covers capital requirements for the Panther Creek, Sharon, and Moses Lake projects through lease execution. From January 1 to May 8, Keel sold 269 Bitcoin for $20 million.
Bitcoin mining, once a core part of Keel’s narrative, is now winding down. At a June 22 investor event, Mir described the mining business as “an element of our past,” as the company redirects its power capacity toward HPC and AI data centers. Alliance Global Partners director Brian Kinstlinger noted that Keel’s power portfolio is increasingly oriented toward these higher-value applications.
As U.S. markets open Monday, investors will watch whether Nasdaq pricing follows the TSX gain or remains below the critical $7.41 conversion level. The 52-week high of $7.37 is just below that threshold, meaning a return to that level would bring the conversion price back into play. With heavy short interest and elevated volume, the stock’s next moves could be volatile.
