Crypto

MARA's Bitcoin-Backed AI Loans Raise Collateral Risk as Q2 Revenue Drops

MARA shares fell 4.6% as Q2 revenue dropped 27% and new bitcoin-backed loans for AI raise collateral risk. Analysts split on outlook.

Sarah Chen · · · 3 min read · 8 views
MARA's Bitcoin-Backed AI Loans Raise Collateral Risk as Q2 Revenue Drops
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CLSK $14.65 +6.47% IREN $38.65 -0.62% MARA $10.92 -2.89% RIOT $21.58 +0.35%

Shares of MARA Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA) declined 4.6% to $10.16 on Friday, as investors weighed the company's weaker second-quarter results against a bold new financing strategy that ties its artificial intelligence ambitions to bitcoin collateral. The drop came even as bitcoin held steady near $64,760, suggesting the selloff was company-specific rather than sector-wide.

MARA reported unaudited revenue of $174.9 million for the second quarter of 2026, a 27% decline from $238.5 million in the same period last year. The company also posted a net loss of $611.3 million, a sharp reversal from a $808.2 million profit a year earlier. The loss was driven primarily by fair-value losses on digital assets totaling $343 million, compared with a $1.2 billion gain in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted EBITDA swung to a loss of $360.9 million from a positive $1.245 billion.

Despite the financial hit, operational metrics showed progress. MARA mined 2,422 bitcoin in the quarter, up 3% year-over-year, while energized hashrate climbed 22% to 70.3 EH/s. However, the cost per bitcoin rose 15% to $38,690, reflecting higher network difficulty and power expenses. Daily cost per petahash improved 4% to $27.70.

The market's attention, however, focused on the company's new credit facilities announced on August 4. MARA finalized two bitcoin-secured loans totaling $750 million, comprising $600 million in new debt and $150 million in refinancing. The facilities are initially backed by 18,750 bitcoin, representing 52.7% of the company's holdings as of June. At Friday's bitcoin price, that collateral is worth approximately $1.21 billion, about 1.6 times the total principal.

The structure increases MARA's sensitivity to bitcoin price swings. According to the company, a $10,000 change in bitcoin would alter pretax income by $355.8 million, which is roughly 9% of current equity value and double the quarter's revenue. This leverage raises concerns about potential margin calls or forced asset sales if bitcoin prices fall.

CEO Fred Thiel defended the strategy on Thursday's earnings call, stating, "We did not arrive at this opportunity by chasing a new trend." Executives describe the funding as non-dilutive and say it enhances collateral and leverage. The company is pursuing AI infrastructure leases, with potential power capacity estimated at 4.2 to 4.8 gigawatts, and expects to sign at least two more leases by year-end.

Analyst reactions are mixed. Bernstein, a unit of AllianceBernstein (NYSE:AB), maintained a Market Perform rating and $17 price target, citing the absence of a commercial AI contract. Rosenblatt Securities reiterated a Buy with a $15 target, while Cantor Fitzgerald kept an Overweight with a $12 target. FactSet consensus shows an average target of $17.68, implying 74% upside from Friday's close.

Peer performance was mixed: Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT) fell 1.1%, CleanSpark (NASDAQ:CLSK) dropped 2.6%, while IREN Limited (NASDAQ:IREN) rose 3.7%, suggesting the market is distinguishing between companies with and without AI-focused strategies.

The key catalyst for MARA is securing a definitive AI lease, which would provide a tangible non-crypto revenue stream. Until then, the company remains a bitcoin proxy, financing its AI initiative with bitcoin collateral. Risks include declining bitcoin prices reducing collateral value, regulatory clearance for Long Ridge, and uncertainties around lease execution and capital requirements.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Market data may be delayed. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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