NEW YORK, July 29, 2026 — Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) saw its shares decline 5.4% to $776.13 by 11:45 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, extending a three-session losing streak that has erased approximately 15.8% of the stock's value. The latest drop follows an 8.9% decline on Tuesday and a 2.3% dip on Monday.
The selloff runs counter to the company's near-term earnings outlook. Micron's fiscal fourth-quarter guidance projects revenue of $50 billion, representing a 20.6% sequential increase from the third quarter's $41.46 billion. Gross margin is expected to rise to approximately 86%, up from 84.6% in the prior quarter. Non-GAAP earnings per share are forecast at $31.00, a 23.5% increase from $25.11.
Despite these robust projections, investor concerns center on the sustainability of peak memory pricing. The current market valuation reflects skepticism about how long elevated margins can persist as new supply enters the market. The stock trades at an indicative run-rate price-to-earnings multiple of about 6.7 times, based on the intraday share price and a 13-week adjusted annualization of the fourth-quarter earnings midpoint.
Peak Cycle Risks Emerge
The third-quarter results already hinted at peak-cycle dynamics. DRAM average selling prices surged in the low-260% range, while NAND prices advanced in the mid-310% range, driven primarily by pricing power rather than volume growth. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra has emphasized that multi-year contracts should help stabilize pricing and enhance the durability and predictability of Micron's results.
However, new competitive pressures are emerging from China. CXMT Corp (SHA:688825) surged 466% on its first day of trading in Shanghai on Monday, following an $8.6 billion fundraising. The company held an estimated 7.7% share of the global DRAM market in 2025. Cameron Systermans of Mercer Investments described CXMT as an emerging rival in commodity DRAM, though he noted the company remains "years behind" in high-bandwidth memory (HBM).
Broader Market Pressure
The memory sector is experiencing a broad selloff. SK Hynix (KRX:000660) reported all-time high quarterly revenue and a 76% operating margin, but its stock dropped 9.6% as results failed to meet elevated market expectations. U.S. storage stocks also faced selling pressure: SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) fell 7.2% on Wednesday, while Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC) eased 0.2% after a 6.9% decline on Tuesday.
Despite the recent weakness, some analysts view the pullback as a buying opportunity. One analyst raised Micron's rating, while another projected a $2,000 stock price by 2030, citing ongoing shortages and successful scaling of HBM4E production. To achieve such a target, fiscal 2026 revenue of approximately $128.96 billion would need to triple to nearly $386.88 billion by fiscal 2030, implying about 31.6% annual growth over four years.
Outlook and Risks
The divided view on Micron reflects the tension between current earnings strength and future margin sustainability. The stock appears inexpensive based on present earnings, but the valuation would look higher if margins revert to historical levels before demand catches up with capacity.
Key risks include potential pressure on commodity DRAM prices from expanding Chinese production, a slowdown in HBM demand, or delays in HBM4E development. Conversely, extended shortages and longer contract terms could sustain all-time high margins. For now, the selloff reflects skepticism about the duration of the current cycle rather than concerns about the fourth quarter. Investors will be watching for evidence that contracts can maintain pricing as new supply enters the market.
