New research from HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) reveals that nearly 7 million UK adults have never checked their State Pension forecast. The estimate, based on a survey of 5,206 adults conducted between 27 February and 12 March, found that 12.5% of respondents had never reviewed their forecast. HMRC extrapolated this figure to the UK adult population, highlighting a significant information gap.
Who Is Most Likely to Skip the Check?
The study identified adults aged 45 to 54 as the group most likely to have never checked their State Pension forecast. Among all respondents, 26% said retirement felt too distant to warrant a check, while 24% worried about losing track of pensions from previous jobs. Another 20% expressed concerns about the impact of career breaks on their pension entitlement. Nearly a third of respondents had used the HMRC app or online services to check their forecast.
The Importance of Checking Before Paying
Financial experts stress that checking the forecast is crucial before making any voluntary National Insurance (NI) contributions. The government’s NI record service provides a clear picture of paid contributions and credits, identifies years that do not qualify, and indicates whether a voluntary payment would increase the pension. However, a visible gap may not always be worth filling—if the full pension is already secured, or if other rules prevent that year from boosting entitlement, paying extra would be futile.
Potential Payback of Voluntary Contributions
For those building entitlement entirely under the post-April 2016 system, a qualifying year typically adds about £6.89 per week until the full rate is reached, roughly £358 annually. The 2026-27 Class 3 voluntary rate is £18.40 per week, or £956.80 for a full year. This implies a simple pre-tax payback period of about 2.7 years when a full extra year generates the maximum increase. However, this is a calculation based on current rates and not a guaranteed return.
Complexities for Many Individuals
The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) guidance notes that those with no NI record before 6 April 2016 generally need 35 qualifying years for the full new State Pension and at least 10 for any payment. Pre-2016 records may involve a separate starting amount and periods of contracting out. Tax implications, future rule changes, and individual claiming periods also affect the economics of voluntary contributions.
Distinguishing State Pension from Workplace Pensions
The survey’s reference to pensions from old jobs can be easily misread. State Pension entitlement is linked to the NI record, whereas workplace or personal pensions are separate assets held with schemes or providers. The government’s Pension Tracing Service can help locate contact details for former employer schemes, but it cannot confirm the existence or value of a pot. This distinction is vital when deciding where to allocate extra savings.
Comparing Options: NI Gaps vs. Other Savings
Fixing an NI gap can buy an inflation-linked income stream backed by the government. In contrast, contributing to a workplace pension may attract employer contributions and tax relief, but the assets are subject to investment risks. ISAs offer flexibility but do not create pension entitlement. The forecast establishes the baseline for the State Pension, allowing individuals to compare these options effectively.
HMRC’s Own Caution
The HMRC research was a self-reported survey about digital habits, published during Pension Awareness Week to promote the HMRC app. It did not measure how many respondents had contribution gaps or would benefit from filling them. Therefore, the 6.9 million estimate describes an information gap, not a monetary value of missing pensions.
Actionable Steps
For UK adults, the immediate step is straightforward: obtain the State Pension forecast, verify whether an NI payment would increase it, and keep workplace pension tracing as a separate task. A forecast check can reveal a valuable gap or prevent an unnecessary payment that would not add to the pension.
