The Russian equity market recorded a positive performance in the trading week concluding March 6, 2026, driven primarily by a sharp rally in global oil prices. The MOEX Russia Index, which is denominated in roubles, closed at 2,854.11, marking a weekly gain of approximately 2%. In contrast, the dollar-denominated RTS Index experienced a slight decline of about 0.5% over the same period, reflecting currency fluctuations.
Crude Oil Catalyzes Market Movement
The primary driver behind the market's strength was a dramatic surge in the price of Brent crude oil, which soared 27% over the week to settle at $92.69 per barrel. This represents the most significant weekly increase since the spring of 2020. The price spike was triggered by geopolitical tensions involving Iran, which led to a severe disruption of maritime traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil shipments. Analysts, including Giovanni Staunovo of UBS, noted that the market is pricing in a sustained risk premium, with prices likely to continue climbing for each day the Strait remains obstructed.
Energy and Commodity Stocks Lead Gains
The rally in crude prices provided a direct boost to Russian exporters and related equities. The price for Urals crude loaded at Primorsk leaped to $68.6 per barrel, a substantial increase from the previous week's $45.7. On the MOEX, energy and shipping stocks were standout performers by the week's close. Sovcomflot led the advance with a gain of 7.8%, followed by Rosneft at 4.9%, Lukoil at 3.9%, and Novatek, which added 3.3%. The bullish sentiment spilled over into the fertilizer sector, with shares of Acron and PhosAgro rising 3% and 4%, respectively, since February 28, as traders anticipated tighter global supply chains due to Middle Eastern disruptions.
Igor Yushkov, an analyst at the state-linked Financial University, highlighted that the situation in the Hormuz Strait is creating "favourable conditions" for Russia's energy export revenues, a crucial pillar of the federal budget.
Currency and Index Dynamics
The Central Bank of Russia fixed the official US dollar exchange rate at 79.15 roubles on March 7, representing an appreciation of 1.88 roubles against the dollar over the week. This strengthening of the rouble partly explains the underperformance of the dollar-based RTS Index compared to its rouble-based counterpart. In other index news, the Moscow Exchange announced that ordinary shares of retailer Lenta will be added to the MOEX Russia and RTS indices effective March 20. Concurrently, the exchange is considering the removal of ordinary shares of developer PIK Group from the indices, a move that could prompt benchmark-tracking funds to adjust their portfolios.
Broader Market Context and Data
Providing context for the growing retail participation in Russian markets, the Moscow Exchange reported that the number of individual brokerage accounts is projected to reach nearly 41 million by the end of 2025. The total market capitalization of listed equities on the exchange stood at 52.9 trillion roubles. For the month of February, total equity turnover reached 2.4 trillion roubles, with daily averages hitting 91.4 billion roubles.
Underlying Risks and Forward Outlook
Despite the oil-fueled rally, underlying risks persist. The key Black Sea oil port of Novorossiysk only resumed shipments on Friday after operations were halted earlier in the week due to drone attacks. Furthermore, the Moscow city government announced its first cut to investment spending since the pandemic era, signaling mounting fiscal pressures. These factors introduce volatility, suggesting that market support could quickly recede if oil prices retreat or if further logistical disruptions occur.
Market strategists remain cautiously observant. Bogdan Zvarich, head of banking and financial market analysis at PSB, identified the 2,800 to 2,900 range as a key zone for the MOEX Index, with oil and gas, base metals, and fertilizer stocks as near-term focal points. Looking ahead, the oil market will remain the central narrative. Goldman Sachs warned that crude prices could breach the $100 per barrel threshold if supply issues in the Hormuz Strait persist—a scenario that would provide further tailwinds for Russian equities but also heighten the risk of a sharp corrective pullback.
