Economy News

Economic news covering Fed interest rate decisions, inflation data, jobs reports, GDP growth, and macroeconomic trends affecting the stock market.

US Jobs Report Shows Unexpected Decline; Fed Rate Hike Odds Drop
Economy Daniel Marsh

US Jobs Report Shows Unexpected Decline; Fed Rate Hike Odds Drop

July nonfarm payrolls dropped by 23,000, far below expectations, while revisions cut May and June totals. Futures rose and September rate hike odds fell to 42.3%.

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2027 Social Security COLA Forecast: 3.8% Hike Could Boost Payments by $63B
Economy Daniel Marsh

2027 Social Security COLA Forecast: 3.8% Hike Could Boost Payments by $63B

A projected 3.8% Social Security COLA for 2027 could add $63 billion to annual payments, boosting retirees' spending power, though final rate awaits inflation data.

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Social Security COLA 2027 Forecast: 3.8% Increase, $63B Payout, Medicare Premiums Rise
Economy Daniel Marsh

Social Security COLA 2027 Forecast: 3.8% Increase, $63B Payout, Medicare Premiums Rise

The Senior Citizens League forecasts a 3.8% Social Security COLA for 2027, adding $63B in annual payouts, but Medicare Part B premium hikes will offset some gains for retirees.

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2027 Social Security COLA Projected at 3.6%-3.8%, Adding $50B to Outlays
Economy Daniel Marsh

2027 Social Security COLA Projected at 3.6%-3.8%, Adding $50B to Outlays

Initial estimates put the 2027 Social Security COLA at 3.6%-3.8%, boosting average monthly benefits by $75-$79 and adding ~$50 billion in annual outlays, with modest consumer impact.

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2027 Social Security COLA Estimate: $63 Billion Annual Boost
Economy Daniel Marsh

2027 Social Security COLA Estimate: $63 Billion Annual Boost

A 3.8% COLA estimate for 2027 Social Security benefits could raise annual payouts by $63 billion, with typical retired workers receiving an extra $79 per month.

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Second-Home Mortgage Originations See First Annual Gain in Four Years, Wealthy Buyers Drive Recovery
Economy Daniel Marsh

Second-Home Mortgage Originations See First Annual Gain in Four Years, Wealthy Buyers Drive Recovery

U.S. second-home mortgage originations increased 4.1% in 2025, the first annual gain in four years, though activity is still 65% below the 2021 record. High-income borrowers accounted for 85.2% of loans.

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Mortgage Rates Rise as Treasury Yields Surge Post-Fed Decision
Economy Daniel Marsh

Mortgage Rates Rise as Treasury Yields Surge Post-Fed Decision

US mortgage rates increased to 6.78% following the Fed's rate decision, as long-term Treasury yields advanced. The gap between mortgage rates and Treasuries narrowed, indicating pressure from bond markets rather than mortgage-specific issues.

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2027 Social Security COLA Estimate Slashed to 3.7%, Reducing Benefit Payouts by $16.6 Billion
Economy Daniel Marsh

2027 Social Security COLA Estimate Slashed to 3.7%, Reducing Benefit Payouts by $16.6 Billion

The projected 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment has been reduced to 3.7%, down from 4.7%, trimming estimated benefit increases by $16.6 billion annually.

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Social Security COLA Seen at 3.8% in 2027, Adding $63B in Benefits
Economy Daniel Marsh

Social Security COLA Seen at 3.8% in 2027, Adding $63B in Benefits

A 3.8% COLA for 2027 would boost Social Security payouts by $63 billion, but taxes and Medicare costs could cut the net benefit.

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Social Security COLA Plan Could Halve Deficit but Offers Only Two-Year Extension
Economy Daniel Marsh

Social Security COLA Plan Could Halve Deficit but Offers Only Two-Year Extension

A fixed-rate COLA proposal could halve Social Security's 75-year deficit but extends solvency by only two years. AARP opposes the PROMISE Act's fast-track process.

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August SSI Payments Shift to July, $5.4 Billion in Play
Economy Daniel Marsh

August SSI Payments Shift to July, $5.4 Billion in Play

August Supplemental Security Income payments of $5.4 billion will be issued on July 31, shifting the schedule due to a weekend. The move alters spending patterns and retail data timing.

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SSI Payment Shift: August Disbursement Moved to July 31
Economy Daniel Marsh

SSI Payment Shift: August Disbursement Moved to July 31

August SSI payments of $5.4 billion will be issued July 31, resulting in two payments in July and none in August. Investors should watch for volatility in cash-flow data.

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