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Nokia stock tests €10 support as AI trade faces earnings scrutiny

Nokia shares slip 2.4% toward €10 as the AI trade runs into earnings season, with investors demanding proof of revenue conversion from data center deals.

Daniel Marsh · · · 3 min read · 12 views
Nokia stock tests €10 support as AI trade faces earnings scrutiny
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ANET $166.46 -3.94% CIEN $418.91 -3.44% CSCO $111.79 -1.92% LITE $698.91 -4.42% NVDA $196.93 +0.71%

Helsinki, July 8, 2026, 14:18 EEST — Nasdaq Helsinki was open at the time shown; stocks trade there from 10:00 to 18:30 local, and July 8 isn’t named as a 2026 exchange holiday. Nokia Corporation (HEL:NOKIA; NYSE:NOK) traded at €10.17 on its investor page, falling 2.40% in Helsinki at 13:32 EEST. Its NYSE ADR was at $11.85, off 5.28% at 02:00 EET/EEST.

Nokia said it will release its Q2 and half-year 2026 results on July 23. The stock has dropped as traders start to doubt how soon the AI push will pay off. A new Wall Street Journal piece brought up Nokia’s part in supplying AI data centers, but the Helsinki market didn’t move on that.

The key thing isn’t the latest headline. What matters is how Nokia trades against the Helsinki index. If Finland is soft, that drags Nokia. But the underperformance runs deeper than just that. The gap is important. Nokia remains among the firmer 2026 names in Helsinki, but action last week shows holders aren’t chasing the story on hope anymore. Now the market wants to see AI orders hit revenue before telecom headwinds drag the stock lower.

The chart tells the same story. Shares sit under the 5-, 20-, and 50-day moving averages, but they’re holding above the 100-day. It’s a sign of damage, but the longer trend isn’t broken yet. Volume stayed low. About 3.66 million shares traded for the day versus a 20-day average of 14.76 million—so the ratio was just 0.53. A quick drop with little volume sometimes signals sellers are not finished yet. Large holders might also be waiting on the July 23 report.

The peer table goes both directions. Nokia isn’t the weakest optical chart out there, but it’s stopped trading like a slow-moving Cisco-style equipment stock. That’s the market’s classification problem. Nokia still depends on carrier spending, but when risk drops, the stock trades more like the optical and AI-networking names. So in strong order cycles, shareholders see more upside. When timing is uncertain, the downside is sharper.

Nokia’s latest numbers lay out why investors still see value in the company’s shift. First-quarter comparable net sales were up 4% on a constant-currency and portfolio basis. Net sales to AI & Cloud customers jumped 49%, now 8% of total sales. Comparable gross margin hit 45.5%, and comparable operating margin was 6.2%. CEO Justin Hotard said Nokia is “investing to capture accelerating demand from AI & Cloud customers.”

The report points to ongoing pressure. Nokia stuck with its full-year 2026 comparable operating profit target in the €2.0 billion to €2.5 billion range. The company expects Q2 net sales to rise 5% to 9% over Q1 and sees Q2 operating profit making up 12% to 16% of the full-year total. The next earnings will be a test, not just another quarter.

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) has shaken up the cap table, not just the narrative. Nokia wrapped up the directed share issue back in November 2025, registering 166,389,351 new shares and raising the total to 5,742,239,696. That’s about 2.90% of Nokia’s shares. The subscription for those shares was €5.16 each—shares in Helsinki trade at €10.17 today, so up nearly 97%. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang called AI-RAN a revolution for telecom. Hotard talked up the deal as a way to put “an AI data center into everyone’s pocket.” Now those big claims need to hit the numbers—order conversion, gross margin, and working capital—not just help the multiple.

For investors, €10 is the key level. Nokia holds a higher low over the 100-day average as long as it stays above that mark. If shares drop below €10, the question becomes how much of the 2026 upside could get trimmed ahead of July 23. Q2 needs to prove AI and Cloud bookings are starting to hit revenue, and not putting group margin at risk.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Market data may be delayed. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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