Novo Nordisk's U.S.-listed shares (NYSE: NVO) advanced 1.85% to close at $45.71 on Tuesday, outperforming the S&P 500 by 2.54 percentage points. The move comes as investors weigh the implications of a new Medicare pilot program that expands access to weight-loss drugs but at a price that may compress margins.
The Medicare GLP-1 Bridge, which launched July 1 and runs through December 2027, allows eligible Part D enrollees to pay just $50 per month for approved GLP-1 medications, including both oral and injectable versions of Wegovy. The manufacturer's net price is listed at $245 per monthly supply, according to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS).
CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz said the program “creates a new pathway for eligible beneficiaries to afford GLP-1 medications.” However, eligibility is narrower than full Medicare coverage, and patients already on a GLP-1 under Part D may not qualify. The program also covers rival drugs from Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), including Zepbound and Mounjaro, meaning it does not exclusively benefit Novo.
Investor reaction in Copenhagen was mixed. Novo's B shares (CPH: NOVO-B) opened at DKK 293.10 and traded at DKK 293.80 by 09:02 CEST, down 0.86%. The divergent moves highlight the central dilemma: broader access could boost prescription volumes, but government-set pricing and competition may limit revenue per prescription.
Data from Novo shows strong prescription momentum. By July 17, weekly U.S. prescriptions for the Wegovy pill exceeded 265,000, while all forms of Wegovy combined reached roughly 575,000 weekly prescriptions. The pill now accounts for nearly 46% of the franchise's total. Cumulative pill prescriptions surpassed five million after 30 weeks, averaging about 167,000 per week, with the latest figure up at least 59% from earlier averages.
In its second-quarter results, Novo reported adjusted sales growth of 7% at constant exchange rates, supported by higher GLP-1 volumes but partially offset by lower realized prices. Adjusted operating profit grew 11%, and the company raised its full-year sales outlook to a range of 0% to -6% growth at CER, citing higher GLP-1 projections. CEO Mike Doustdar called the Wegovy portfolio “a key growth driver for Novo Nordisk in 2026.”
Eli Lilly's stock rose 3.60% on Tuesday, outpacing Novo. Lilly's combined sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound reached nearly $15 billion in the second quarter, underscoring the competitive pressure. Novo's edge now hinges on its oral formulation and broader Wegovy lineup.
Wall Street remains cautious. All five analysts who updated ratings in the past three months have a Hold recommendation, with an average price target of $45—just 1.55% below Tuesday's close. The highest target, $47, implies a potential gain of only 2.82%. Analysts include Evan Seigerman (BMO Capital, $47), Kerry Holford (Berenberg, $47), James Quigley (Goldman Sachs, $44), Jasper Hellweg (Argus Research, no target), and Michael Nedelcovych (TD Cowen, $42).
Key risks include lower-than-expected enrollment in the Bridge program, patient preference for Lilly's drugs, and the possibility that increased volume may not offset the $245 net price and other rebates. Additionally, clinical trial setbacks, patent expirations, and a stronger dollar could weigh on performance.
Investors will look to prescription data and Novo's Capital Markets Day on September 21 for clarity on whether access-driven volume can compensate for price declines. Third-quarter earnings are scheduled for November 4.
