Novo Nordisk A/S saw its B shares climb 3.75% to 301.20 Danish crowns in Copenhagen trading on Monday, following the release of a pooled analysis from the STEP clinical trial program. The data demonstrated that semaglutide 2.4 mg, the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy, led to a 15.4% reduction in body weight among adults aged 65 and older over 68 weeks, compared to a 5.1% loss in the placebo group. This finding provides a significant boost to Novo Nordisk's efforts to defend its obesity drug franchise against intensifying competition from Eli Lilly and other players in the GLP-1 receptor agonist market.
The analysis, presented at the European Congress on Obesity in Istanbul, pooled data from six STEP trials—STEP 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, and 9. It included 358 participants aged 65 and older who were either obese or overweight but did not have diabetes. Of these, 248 received semaglutide 2.4 mg, while 110 were given a placebo. The results showed that semaglutide not only reduced body weight but also shrank waistlines by an average of 14.3 cm, compared to 6.0 cm in the placebo group. Additionally, 28.6% of those on semaglutide achieved at least a 20% weight loss, versus just 2.7% in the placebo group. The proportion of participants reaching a BMI under 27, considered a healthy weight, was 27.0% for semaglutide users, compared to 5.5% for placebo.
Lead investigator Professor Luca Busetto of the University of Padova noted that the safety and efficacy profile of semaglutide in this older population was consistent with findings from the broader STEP program. He stated that these results support the use of semaglutide in older adults, a demographic where physicians often exercise caution due to frailty and complex health conditions. However, the study also reported a higher incidence of serious adverse events in the semaglutide group (19.0%) versus placebo (12.7%), along with more cases of constipation and dizziness. The release acknowledged conflicts of interest, as Novo Nordisk employees were among the study's authors.
The positive data comes at a critical time for Novo Nordisk, as the weight-loss drug landscape shifts from hard-to-find injectables to more convenient oral formulations. Novo Nordisk is banking on the strong demand for its Wegovy pill, which has seen over 200,000 prescriptions filled in the U.S. in the week ending April 17, to offset softer U.S. pricing. The company recently raised its 2026 forecast after first-quarter adjusted operating profit rose to 32.86 billion Danish crowns. CEO Mike Doustdar described the Wegovy pill rollout as the strongest-ever GLP-1 volume launch in the U.S., bolstered by the approval of Wegovy HD, a higher-dose injectable.
Despite these gains, Novo Nordisk faces headwinds from pricing pressures and competition from Eli Lilly. Lilly's obesity pill, Foundayo, has seen a modest start with 7,335 U.S. prescriptions in its fourth week, according to Reuters. Analysts note that while prescription numbers are booming, revenue growth could be constrained if patients stick with lower-cost starter doses or if Lilly captures more market share. Novo Nordisk's adjusted U.S. sales fell 11% in the first quarter, reflecting lower realized prices.
Novo Nordisk is presenting 52 abstracts at the European Congress on Obesity, covering data on oral semaglutide 25 mg, higher-dose Wegovy, the CagriSema combination therapy, and real-world evidence for Wegovy. The company's stock reaction underscores investor optimism that the data can help defend its obesity franchise against Eli Lilly's advancing pipeline. However, the commercial story for older adults remains complex, given the higher adverse event rates and pricing dynamics.
