Nvidia will release its fiscal first-quarter results after the market close on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. The report is one of the most anticipated events for the technology sector, as the company remains the bellwether for artificial intelligence investment trends. Analysts polled by LSEG via Reuters expect revenue to reach approximately $79 billion, representing a nearly 80% increase from the same period last year. Adjusted net profit is forecast to rise 81.8% to $42.97 billion.
Shares of Nvidia closed Tuesday at $220.61, down about 0.7%, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $5.4 trillion. Options market pricing indicates a potential 6.5% one-day swing in the stock following the earnings release, which translates to around $355 billion in market value. Matt Amberson, founder of ORATS, told Reuters that investors appear "complacent about AI/capex," suggesting that the market may be underestimating the risk of a slowdown in data center spending.
The earnings call is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET on May 20, and written remarks from CFO Colette Kress will be released shortly after the numbers hit. Investors will focus heavily on forward guidance, particularly regarding the pace of AI data center buildouts and the ramp-up of Nvidia's latest Blackwell chip architecture. In the prior quarter (Q4 of fiscal 2025), Nvidia reported revenue of $68.1 billion, up 73% year-over-year, with data center revenue rising 75% to $62.3 billion.
For the current quarter, S&P Global's Visible Alpha consensus projects revenue of $78.5 billion and data center revenue of $72.8 billion. Analysts are divided on the speed of the Blackwell system launch, which is critical for sustaining growth. Meanwhile, competition is intensifying as the AI chip market shifts from training to inference. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Alphabet's custom TPU chips are vying for a larger share. John Belton, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, noted that the key question is whether the "Nvidia ecosystem" can maintain its competitive edge as inference demand grows.
Bullish sentiment remains strong in the options market. Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna, said traders are "paying for upside participation." However, Reuters also reported that some traders are hedging gains across the semiconductor sector after a solid rally. The risks are not limited to revenue misses. A slowdown in data center construction could push back orders, and geopolitical uncertainties surrounding China persist. Margins may also face pressure from higher costs for memory and chip packaging. Chaim Siegel of Elazar Advisors pointed out that while customers want more GPUs, some may lack the physical data center capacity to deploy them.
Macroeconomic factors also weigh on the stock. Rising bond yields can pressure high-growth names by discounting future profits more heavily. Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise, said that higher yields and sticky inflation may limit the price investors are willing to pay for long-term growth stocks, even if fundamentals are solid. As Nvidia approaches its earnings report, the market's central question is whether the company can deliver growth at a pace that justifies its current valuation as the dominant AI supplier.
