Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) closed Friday at $225.62, up 0.1% on the day and extending its August rally to over 12%. The modest move came despite fresh details on its robotics collaboration with LG, signaling that investors remain fixated on the company's core data center business ahead of its upcoming earnings report.
Data Center Still Dominates
In the fiscal first quarter, Data Center revenue reached $75.2 billion, accounting for 92.1% of total sales. Edge Computing, which includes robotics and automotive products, contributed $6.4 billion, or 7.8% of revenue. Robotics revenue itself is not disclosed separately, leaving investors to gauge progress through broader segments.
Nvidia's market capitalization now stands near $5.46 trillion, based on 24.2 billion shares outstanding. The stock remains about 4.6% below its record close of $236.54.
Earnings Expectations Tight
Wall Street projects fiscal Q2 revenue of $91.9 billion, a mere 1% above management's guidance midpoint of $91.0 billion. Adjusted earnings are expected at $2.08 per share, up 11.2% sequentially from $1.87 in fiscal Q1. The narrow sales gap leaves little room for error, making forward guidance and margin commentary crucial.
Analysts will also watch for updates on Rubin shipments and gross margin trends. Nvidia guided non-GAAP gross margin at 75.0% plus or minus 50 basis points for the quarter.
Robotics: Long-Term Story, Near-Term Noise
LG and Nvidia plan a next-generation bipedal humanoid robot for early 2027, leveraging Nvidia's Isaac GR00T model and Jetson Thor platform. The project also covers wheeled robots and vehicle computing, though commercial terms were not disclosed. CEO Jensen Huang has touted "agentic AI" as a transformative force, but investors still value Nvidia primarily on data center execution.
Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets
Wall Street remains bullish, with an average price target of $302.83, implying roughly 34% upside. Targets range from Bank of America's $350 to Citi's $270. The wide range reflects uncertainty around AI spending sustainability, China export restrictions, and Rubin deployment timing.
Market Context
Friday's tape showed Nvidia holding firm while Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) gained over 4%, suggesting selective AI demand. Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) fell 5.94%, and the S&P 500 slipped 0.17%. The upcoming week will see positioning ahead of the August 26 earnings release.
Risks Ahead
A valuation near $5.5 trillion leaves little room for disappointment. Delays in Rubin, tighter export rules, or slower customer spending could overshadow robotics progress. The lack of separate robotics disclosure adds opacity.
As trading resumes Monday, all eyes will be on Nvidia's data center sales, margins, and forward guidance. The robotics narrative may support the long-term story, but near-term, it's all about the core business.
