New York Times Co. (NYSE: NYT) is set to report third-quarter earnings before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors are zeroing in on the company's digital subscription engine as the primary growth driver. Ahead of the release, the stock slipped 1.14% to $69.15 in midday trading Tuesday, according to Google Finance.
Analysts polled by Zacks project revenue of $763.5 million for the quarter, an 8.9% year-over-year increase from the $700.8 million reported in the same period last year. Earnings per share are expected to come in at 65 cents, a penny lower than the estimate 30 days ago but still 10.2% above last year's adjusted earnings.
The composition of that growth is telling. Based on management's guidance for digital-only subscription revenue to rise 12% to 15%, the digital segment is expected to contribute between $44.1 million and $55.1 million of the total $62.7 million implied revenue increase. That translates to roughly 70% to 88% of the projected top-line expansion, underscoring how dependent the company's growth has become on its subscription business.
In the third quarter of 2025, digital subscriptions generated $367.4 million, or 52.4% of total revenue. Digital advertising added another $98.1 million, meaning the two digital streams together accounted for about two-thirds of sales. The Times ended June with 12.8 million digital-only subscribers after adding 280,000 in the prior quarter, and average revenue per user rose 3.1% year over year to $9.94 per 28-day billing cycle.
CFO Will Bardeen, speaking on the August 5 earnings call, guided for digital-only subscription revenue growth of 12% to 15% in the current quarter, a moderation from the 16.4% increase reported in June. The company will need to demonstrate it can sustain momentum even as growth naturally decelerates from pandemic-era peaks.
On the cost side, management targets adjusted operating expense growth of 8% to 9%, implying spending of approximately $615.0 million to $620.6 million. Against the consensus revenue estimate, that would leave adjusted operating profit of $142.9 million to $148.5 million, for an adjusted operating margin of 18.7% to 19.5%. The higher-cost scenario would essentially match last year's 18.7% margin, leaving little room for profitability improvement at the current revenue outlook.
Print remains a material factor. In last year's third quarter, print subscriptions brought in $127.2 million and print advertising $34.2 million, together representing 23% of total revenue. Both categories declined year over year, and their trajectory will affect whether the company can meet or exceed the consensus revenue target.
Several risks could alter the narrative. Weaker subscriber retention in the face of higher prices could undermine the digital growth calculation. Advertising demand may fall short of management's expectations. And increased spending on journalism, video content, or marketing could push adjusted costs above the guided range.
The company plans to release results around 7 a.m. EST on November 4, with an earnings call scheduled for 8 a.m. Whether digital subscriptions deliver at least $44.1 million in incremental revenue will be the key metric for investors to watch.
