Oklo Inc. (NYSE:OKLO) saw its shares fall 5.5% to $46.15 in late-morning trading on Monday, extending a steep decline that has erased 76% of the stock's value since its 52-week high of $193.84. Despite the selloff, the advanced nuclear reactor developer remains valued at roughly $5.4 billion when stripping out its substantial cash reserves, highlighting the market's continued premium on its future potential.
Texas Capital Securities maintained its Buy rating and $93 price target on Oklo, implying a potential 102% upside from current levels. The stock now trades 52% below the $96.95 average price at which the company sold 12.4 million shares in the first quarter, raising $1.18 billion net through an at-the-market offering.
Oklo's balance sheet has become a central focus for investors. As of March 31, the company reported $2.54 billion in cash and marketable securities against $64.9 million in total liabilities, giving it net liquid assets of $2.47 billion—roughly 31% of its current $7.87 billion market cap. Excluding these liquid assets, the market values Oklo's pre-revenue business at approximately $5.39 billion.
The company's cash position provides a buffer against operating losses. In the first quarter, Oklo generated $21.3 million in interest and dividend income, offsetting 42% of its $51.2 million operating loss. The company used $17.9 million in cash for operations and invested $32.8 million in plant and equipment. For the full year 2026, Oklo forecasts operating and investing cash outflows of $430 million to $550 million, representing 17% to 22% of its March liquidity.
Analyst views on Oklo's valuation remain sharply divided. InvestingPro noted that its September 2025 model had projected a fair value of $55.62 when Oklo traded at $95.83, suggesting the stock was overvalued then. Meanwhile, a 24/7 Wall St. model from Friday valued the shares at $98.56 with 50% confidence. A Motley Fool contributor argued the stock may only appeal to investors willing to wait a decade.
Nuclear stocks showed mixed performance on Monday. While Oklo, NuScale Power (NYSE:SMR), and Nano Nuclear Energy (NASDAQ:NNE) all declined, Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG), operator of the largest U.S. nuclear fleet, rose 1.4%. Oklo's implied enterprise value of $5.39 billion exceeds the combined $3.69 billion equity value of NuScale and Nano Nuclear, despite differences in technology and cash positions.
Oklo's near-term catalyst is the Groves isotope test reactor in Texas. The U.S. Department of Energy approved the final safety analysis on July 1, but the company still requires a readiness review and startup signoff before fuel loading and a controlled chain reaction can begin. Oklo has pushed the target to later in July after missing the original July 4 pilot program date. CEO Jacob DeWitte stated, “Groves now moves into the final phase before startup.” The site will focus on isotope production and will not generate electricity.
Commercial progress remains on a longer timeline. Oklo secured a deal with Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) in January for a 1.2-gigawatt site in Ohio, with Meta prepaying for nuclear fuel. A 2024 master agreement with private company Switch outlines 12 gigawatts, but Oklo notes these are still at the memorandum of understanding stage, with binding power-purchase agreements yet to be finalized. The company targets its first commercial Aurora plant in 2028.
William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer acknowledged the challenges, saying, “While we recognize the inherent risks of a pre-revenue business, we view Oklo as a leader among advanced reactors,” maintaining an Outperform rating. However, even a successful Groves launch may not accelerate Aurora's commercial schedule. Oklo faces hurdles including regulatory approvals, fuel supply, construction costs, and signed customers. Its initial U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission license application was rejected without prejudice in 2022, and a new filing is pending.
For investors, July is not about revenue but execution. The next valuation move likely hinges on a running Groves site, a refreshed regulatory filing, signed power deals, and evidence that 2028 targets remain achievable without another dilutive share sale. Oklo's $5.4 billion valuation remains at risk, despite the cushion of its cash pile.
