Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) shares rose 1.5% to $249.04 in Monday afternoon trading, but recent fund-buying alerts reveal a narrower and older picture than their posting dates suggest. All three positions were measured as of March 31, with USS Investment Management accounting for 542,626 of the 552,514 shares added by the three managers, or 98.2%. Sound Income Strategies and Waterway Wealth Management together picked up only 9,888 shares.
The alerts appeared 73 to 78 days after the filings. Waterway filed on April 21, USS on April 24, and Sound on April 27, each for holdings as of March 31. A Form 13F is a quarterly U.S. holdings report, not a real-time trade notice. The SEC information tables list the final positions and values as filed, meaning investors are seeing stale data.
Focus Shifts to Capex and AWS Growth
Investor attention has moved from ownership disclosures to Amazon's capital expenditure plans. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analyst Brian Nowak on Monday raised his capex estimate for Amazon, now calling for $308 billion in 2027 and $318 billion in 2028, versus an expected $218 billion this year. That represents a 46% jump over two years. Capex, or capital expenditure, is money the company uses on long-term assets like servers or data centers.
Amazon's latest operating numbers highlight strong AWS performance but weak cash flow. AWS sales rose 28% in the quarter to $37.6 billion, and operating income was up 23% to $14.2 billion. However, free cash flow for the trailing 12 months fell 95% to $1.23 billion as spending on property and equipment jumped 67% to $147.3 billion.
Debt Market Activity and Industry Trends
Amazon tapped the debt markets last week for $25 billion in eight bond tranches, with orders topping out at $62 billion. The company said the funds might go to future capex or to repay maturing debt. The borrowing push is also happening at Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META), as Big Tech is lined up to spend more than $700 billion on AI this year.
Wall Street is divided on the payback speed for Amazon's spending. Doug Anmuth from JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) said the $200 billion 2026 capex plan had 'shock value,' but called the rise in AWS and AI spending 'actually a good thing.' Nowak's group said 'strong AWS growth justifies the spend.' Wedbush's Dan Ives said Amazon is in 'prove-it mode' and investors want more real results.
Risks and Data Limitations
There are weak spots in the bullish view. Managers might have cut or exited their bets since March 31, and these filings don't capture that. Amazon could ramp up computing power faster than customers can use it, with rising memory, chip and labor costs pushing out payback. Morgan Stanley's latest update pointed to supply snarls and higher component costs as drivers of the forecast increases.
The three alerts mostly give a read on first-quarter portfolio moves, not on actual buying now, until Q2 filings or managers speak up. For Amazon holders, the real question is if AWS growth can beat a yearly capital budget that's moving past $300 billion.
