Rigetti Computing (RGTI) shares advanced approximately 9% to trade near $20.64 in Monday afternoon trading, as investors positioned ahead of the quantum computing company's first-quarter earnings report due after the market close. The move reflects heightened anticipation around the company's ability to convert recent hardware deals into tangible revenue.
Wall Street analysts are expecting Rigetti to report a net loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $4.13 million for the quarter ended March 31, according to data from Investing.com. That revenue figure would represent a significant increase from the $1.9 million reported in the fourth quarter of 2025, signaling a potential rebound after a soft finish to last year.
Options markets are pricing in a post-earnings move of approximately 10.8%, or about $2.21 per share, suggesting traders expect a notable reaction to the results. The company ended 2025 with $589.8 million in cash, cash equivalents, and available-for-sale investments, providing a substantial runway to fund ongoing research and development, fabrication, and system development despite uneven revenue.
Rigetti's full-year 2025 revenue totaled $7.1 million, while its GAAP net loss widened to $216.2 million. The company has highlighted two Novera on-premises quantum hardware deals valued at $5.7 million, as well as an $8.4 million order from India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing for a 108-qubit superconducting quantum computer. Superconducting quantum computers rely on chilled electrical circuits to perform quantum operations, distinguishing them from classical computing systems.
In March, CEO Subodh Kulkarni pointed to rising demand from government and research buyers, stating that interest "continues to grow" and that the company was on track for year-over-year revenue growth in the first quarter, partly driven by the Novera orders. This shift makes Monday's earnings call a key test of Rigetti's ability to recognize revenue from these contracts, rather than just technological milestones.
Rigetti recently launched its 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q system for general availability on both its Quantum Cloud Services and Amazon Braket. Kulkarni described the launch as a "milestone" for scaling quantum hardware. Eric Kessler, general manager of Amazon Braket, noted that the system offers customers "another choice" for running broader and more complex circuits.
The company is also pursuing international expansion, targeting up to $100 million for a UK facility aimed at deploying a 1,000-plus qubit system within three to four years. This would represent Rigetti's first significant investment outside the United States.
Competition in the quantum computing space is intensifying. IonQ recently raised its full-year revenue outlook after first-quarter results exceeded forecasts, while D-Wave Quantum is scheduled to report earnings later this week. D.A. Davidson analyst Alex Platt told Reuters that "high expectations" and lingering questions about the "viability of the technology" continue to drive trading in the sector.
Rigetti's filings underscore the risks: a significant portion of its revenue depends on public-sector contracts, and its competitive edge relies on rapid innovation, reducing per-qubit costs, and customer adoption. Control of quantum systems remains a challenge, with error rates a persistent industry-wide issue.
Monday's earnings report carries substantial weight. A strong quarter could bolster the argument that system sales are beginning to translate into the bottom line. Conversely, a miss would likely refocus attention on the gap between impressive hardware and meaningful revenue generation.
