Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) entered the Independence Day holiday weekend with a market capitalization of approximately $103 billion, driven by a surge in prediction-market activity that has shifted focus away from traditional equity and options trading. The stock closed at $112.73 on Thursday, up 3.76% on volume 31% above its 65-day average, despite finishing 6.1% below the session high of $120.05.
According to Robinhood's internal data, event contracts—a newer product line tied to prediction markets—ran at a daily pace 65% above May's level through June 25. The company reported 2.1 billion event contracts from June 19 to June 25 alone, representing about 40% of the total for the first 25 days of the month. This growth outpaced equities, options, and crypto during the same period.
By June 25, Robinhood had already exceeded its full-month May totals across all disclosed activity lines. Equity notional volume reached approximately $343 billion, up 21% from May's daily pace, while options contracts hit 274 million, a 31% increase. Crypto notional rose 42% to about $14 billion, and event contracts surged to 5.2 billion, reflecting a 65% jump in daily activity.
This shift matters because Robinhood's valuation now relies heavily on newer revenue streams like event contracts, which still need to prove they can generate durable revenue. Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev raised his price target to $130 from $115 on July 2, implying about 15.3% upside from Thursday's close. Deutsche Bank also lifted its target to $113 from $105 on July 1, maintaining a buy rating. MarketBeat's consensus target stands at $114.35.
Robinhood's market value now exceeds that of Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) at $43.8 billion and Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ: IBKR) at $40.9 billion, but remains about 61% of Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW), which is valued at $169.9 billion. The company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 54.7, compared to Coinbase's 60.8, Schwab's 19.3, and Interactive Brokers' 39.2.
On July 1, Robinhood launched its Robinhood Chain mainnet, introduced Stock Tokens in its wallet across 120 countries, and announced plans to roll out crypto agentic accounts to eligible U.S. traders. Stock Tokens are tokenized debt securities that provide economic exposure without legal or beneficial rights in the underlying stocks. CEO Vlad Tenev told CNBC that agentic trading aims to make “every capability a human can do available to an AI agent.”
Last week, Robinhood closed $2.2 billion in 0.00% convertible senior notes due 2029, using about $290 million to repurchase shares and $123.2 million on capped calls. CFO Shiv Verma said the deal provides “strategic flexibility to invest for future growth.”
The next major catalyst is second-quarter results, scheduled for release on July 29 after the market close, along with full June operating data. Tenev and Verma will host a video call at 5 p.m. ET. The shareholder Q&A window opens July 22 and closes July 28.
