Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX), commonly known as SpaceX, faces a monumental valuation challenge as it approaches Thursday's Starship test flight. Evercore Inc. (NYSE:EVR)'s ISI unit set a $230 price target on Tuesday, implying the company must add approximately $1.24 trillion in equity value to reach that level. With the stock closing at $136.08, just $1.08 above the initial public offering price of $135, the company's current market capitalization stands near $1.8 trillion.
The implied equity value at Evercore's target is $3.03 trillion, based on 13.159 billion shares outstanding after full over-allotment, excluding potential dilution from future stock awards or options. This represents a 69% increase from Tuesday's close. For context, a $10 move in SpaceX stock changes its implied value by roughly $132 billion, highlighting the enormous scale of the company's valuation.
Thursday's Starship Flight 13 is a pivotal technical milestone. Scheduled for a 90-minute window starting at 6:45 p.m. EDT from Starbase, Texas, the mission will attempt to deploy 20 Starlink V3 satellites. These satellites are expected to unfurl their solar arrays and antennas before burning up along a suborbital path. A successful deployment would validate the payload sequence, though it does not constitute commercial service. Evercore lists Starship payload delivery in the second half of 2026 as a key milestone requiring validation.
The stock also faces a supply test. The IPO and full over-allotment issued 638.9 million Class A shares, representing about 4.9% of the post-offering share count. Under the regular lock-up agreement, eligible investors may sell up to 20% of shares held on the offering date after the second full trading day following the June-quarter results. An additional 10% release requires the stock to close at least 30% above the IPO price, or $175.50, for five of the ten sessions ending with that release. This threshold is roughly 29% above Tuesday's close.
The lock-up schedule includes multiple gates: time-based releases at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days after the offer, each allowing an additional 7% of shares. The final regular release occurs 180 days after the offer, freeing all remaining shares. Extended lock-ups follow different terms, and eligibility does not guarantee sales.
Evercore analyst Kutgun Maral described SpaceX as "an extraordinary company" but noted "a great deal left to prove out." His team estimates revenue and EBITDA will compound at 106% and 157%, respectively, through 2028, with margins widening from 35% to 69%. These projections exclude Mars operations and the proposed Terafab chip project. Maral's report suggested growth could "accelerate rather than fade as the decade wears on."
The valuation treats SpaceX as a multi-industry platform, not just a launch provider. For comparison, Rocket Lab USA Inc. (NASDAQ:RKLB) and AST SpaceMobile Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTS) had combined market values of about $67.7 billion on Tuesday. The $1.24 trillion gain implied by Evercore's target is more than 18 times that total. However, the path to $230 faces several risks: a delay or technical issue could push back V3 deployment, weaker Starlink demand or margins below estimates would cut the earnings case, and post-results selling or lock-up releases could increase the available float.
Flight 13 is therefore a technical checkpoint, not a verdict on the $230 target. A clean mission would reduce some technical risk from the May 22 flight, when five of 33 Raptor engines failed to relight, heat damage followed stage separation, and an upper-stage engine malfunctioned. SpaceX identified four corrective actions, and the FAA closed its review on Monday. The harder proof will come when test payloads turn into paid capacity while the tradable share base expands.
